Meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps in Fujian Province, China, 2005–2013: Non-linear effects

BACKGROUND: Mumps is still an important public health issue in the world with several recent outbreaks. The seasonable distribution of the disease suggested that meteorological factors may influence the incidence of mumps. The aim of this study was to explore the possible association between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps, and to provide scientific evidence to relevant health authorities for the disease control and prevention. METHODS: We obtained the data of mumps cases and daily meteorological factors in Fujian Province in Eastern China over the period of 2005–2013. Using distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) approach, we assessed the relationship between the meteorological factors and mumps incidence. RESULTS: The effects of meteorological factors on the mumps incidence were all non-linear. Compared with the lowest risk values, the upper level of precipitation, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity could increase the risk of mumps, whereas the low level of wind velocity, temperature, diurnal temperature range and sunshine duration may also increase the risk. Moderate atmospheric pressure and low wind velocity had larger cumulative effects within 30 lag days and the relative risks were 10.02 (95%CI: 2.47–40.71) and 12.45 (95%CI: 1.40–110.78). For temperature, the cumulative effect within 30 lag days of minimum temperature was higher than that from maximum temperature in most populations. The cumulative effects of minimum temperature for males, children aged 10–14 and students were higher than those in other populations. CONCLUSIONS: Meteorological factors, especially temperature and wind velocity, should be taken into consideration in the prevention and warning of possible mumps epidemic. Special attention should be paid to the vulnerable populations, such as teenagers and young adults.