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Fuel shortages during hurricanes: Epidemiological modeling and optimal control
Hurricanes are powerful agents of destruction with significant socioeconomic impacts. A persistent problem due to the large-scale evacuations during hurricanes in the southeastern United States is the fuel shortages during the evacuation. Computational models can aid in emergency preparedness and he...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7112216/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32236120 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229957 |
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author | Islam, Sabique Namilae, Sirish Prazenica, Richard Liu, Dahai |
author_facet | Islam, Sabique Namilae, Sirish Prazenica, Richard Liu, Dahai |
author_sort | Islam, Sabique |
collection | PubMed |
description | Hurricanes are powerful agents of destruction with significant socioeconomic impacts. A persistent problem due to the large-scale evacuations during hurricanes in the southeastern United States is the fuel shortages during the evacuation. Computational models can aid in emergency preparedness and help mitigate the impacts of hurricanes. In this paper, we model the hurricane fuel shortages using the SIR epidemic model. We utilize the crowd-sourced data corresponding to Hurricane Irma and Florence to parametrize the model. An estimation technique based on Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is employed to evaluate the SIR dynamic parameters. Finally, an optimal control approach for refueling based on a vaccination analogue is presented to effectively reduce the fuel shortages under a resource constraint. We find the basic reproduction number corresponding to fuel shortages in Miami during Hurricane Irma to be 3.98. Using the control model we estimated the level of intervention needed to mitigate the fuel-shortage epidemic. For example, our results indicate that for Naples- Fort Myers affected by Hurricane Irma, a per capita refueling rate of 0.1 for 2.2 days would have reduced the peak fuel shortage from 55% to 48% and a refueling rate of 0.75 for half a day before landfall would have reduced to 37%. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7112216 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-71122162020-04-09 Fuel shortages during hurricanes: Epidemiological modeling and optimal control Islam, Sabique Namilae, Sirish Prazenica, Richard Liu, Dahai PLoS One Research Article Hurricanes are powerful agents of destruction with significant socioeconomic impacts. A persistent problem due to the large-scale evacuations during hurricanes in the southeastern United States is the fuel shortages during the evacuation. Computational models can aid in emergency preparedness and help mitigate the impacts of hurricanes. In this paper, we model the hurricane fuel shortages using the SIR epidemic model. We utilize the crowd-sourced data corresponding to Hurricane Irma and Florence to parametrize the model. An estimation technique based on Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is employed to evaluate the SIR dynamic parameters. Finally, an optimal control approach for refueling based on a vaccination analogue is presented to effectively reduce the fuel shortages under a resource constraint. We find the basic reproduction number corresponding to fuel shortages in Miami during Hurricane Irma to be 3.98. Using the control model we estimated the level of intervention needed to mitigate the fuel-shortage epidemic. For example, our results indicate that for Naples- Fort Myers affected by Hurricane Irma, a per capita refueling rate of 0.1 for 2.2 days would have reduced the peak fuel shortage from 55% to 48% and a refueling rate of 0.75 for half a day before landfall would have reduced to 37%. Public Library of Science 2020-04-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7112216/ /pubmed/32236120 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229957 Text en © 2020 Islam et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Islam, Sabique Namilae, Sirish Prazenica, Richard Liu, Dahai Fuel shortages during hurricanes: Epidemiological modeling and optimal control |
title | Fuel shortages during hurricanes: Epidemiological modeling and optimal control |
title_full | Fuel shortages during hurricanes: Epidemiological modeling and optimal control |
title_fullStr | Fuel shortages during hurricanes: Epidemiological modeling and optimal control |
title_full_unstemmed | Fuel shortages during hurricanes: Epidemiological modeling and optimal control |
title_short | Fuel shortages during hurricanes: Epidemiological modeling and optimal control |
title_sort | fuel shortages during hurricanes: epidemiological modeling and optimal control |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7112216/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32236120 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229957 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT islamsabique fuelshortagesduringhurricanesepidemiologicalmodelingandoptimalcontrol AT namilaesirish fuelshortagesduringhurricanesepidemiologicalmodelingandoptimalcontrol AT prazenicarichard fuelshortagesduringhurricanesepidemiologicalmodelingandoptimalcontrol AT liudahai fuelshortagesduringhurricanesepidemiologicalmodelingandoptimalcontrol |