Cargando…

Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models

We study changes in the bifurcations of seasonally driven compartmental epidemic models, where the transmission rate is modulated temporally. In the presence of periodic modulation of the transmission rate, the dynamics varies from periodic to chaotic. The route to chaos is typically through period...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Bilal, Shakir, Singh, Brajendra K., Prasad, Awadhesh, Michael, Edwin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: AIP Publishing LLC 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7112454/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27781468
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4963174
_version_ 1783513479613775872
author Bilal, Shakir
Singh, Brajendra K.
Prasad, Awadhesh
Michael, Edwin
author_facet Bilal, Shakir
Singh, Brajendra K.
Prasad, Awadhesh
Michael, Edwin
author_sort Bilal, Shakir
collection PubMed
description We study changes in the bifurcations of seasonally driven compartmental epidemic models, where the transmission rate is modulated temporally. In the presence of periodic modulation of the transmission rate, the dynamics varies from periodic to chaotic. The route to chaos is typically through period doubling bifurcation. There are coexisting attractors for some sets of parameters. However in the presence of quasiperiodic modulation, tori are created in place of periodic orbits and chaos appears via finite torus doublings. Strange nonchaotic attractors (SNAs) are created at the boundary of chaotic and torus dynamics. Multistability is found to be reduced as a function of quasiperiodic modulation strength. It is argued that occurrence of SNAs gives an opportunity of asymptotic predictability of epidemic growth even when the underlying dynamics is strange.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7112454
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2016
publisher AIP Publishing LLC
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-71124542020-04-02 Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models Bilal, Shakir Singh, Brajendra K. Prasad, Awadhesh Michael, Edwin Chaos Regular Articles We study changes in the bifurcations of seasonally driven compartmental epidemic models, where the transmission rate is modulated temporally. In the presence of periodic modulation of the transmission rate, the dynamics varies from periodic to chaotic. The route to chaos is typically through period doubling bifurcation. There are coexisting attractors for some sets of parameters. However in the presence of quasiperiodic modulation, tori are created in place of periodic orbits and chaos appears via finite torus doublings. Strange nonchaotic attractors (SNAs) are created at the boundary of chaotic and torus dynamics. Multistability is found to be reduced as a function of quasiperiodic modulation strength. It is argued that occurrence of SNAs gives an opportunity of asymptotic predictability of epidemic growth even when the underlying dynamics is strange. AIP Publishing LLC 2016-09 2016-09-22 /pmc/articles/PMC7112454/ /pubmed/27781468 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4963174 Text en © 2016 Author(s) Published by AIP Publishing. 1054-1500/2016/26(9)/093115/8/$30.00 All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Regular Articles
Bilal, Shakir
Singh, Brajendra K.
Prasad, Awadhesh
Michael, Edwin
Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models
title Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models
title_full Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models
title_fullStr Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models
title_full_unstemmed Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models
title_short Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models
title_sort effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models
topic Regular Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7112454/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27781468
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4963174
work_keys_str_mv AT bilalshakir effectsofquasiperiodicforcinginepidemicmodels
AT singhbrajendrak effectsofquasiperiodicforcinginepidemicmodels
AT prasadawadhesh effectsofquasiperiodicforcinginepidemicmodels
AT michaeledwin effectsofquasiperiodicforcinginepidemicmodels