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Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models
We study changes in the bifurcations of seasonally driven compartmental epidemic models, where the transmission rate is modulated temporally. In the presence of periodic modulation of the transmission rate, the dynamics varies from periodic to chaotic. The route to chaos is typically through period...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
AIP Publishing LLC
2016
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7112454/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27781468 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4963174 |
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author | Bilal, Shakir Singh, Brajendra K. Prasad, Awadhesh Michael, Edwin |
author_facet | Bilal, Shakir Singh, Brajendra K. Prasad, Awadhesh Michael, Edwin |
author_sort | Bilal, Shakir |
collection | PubMed |
description | We study changes in the bifurcations of seasonally driven compartmental epidemic models, where the transmission rate is modulated temporally. In the presence of periodic modulation of the transmission rate, the dynamics varies from periodic to chaotic. The route to chaos is typically through period doubling bifurcation. There are coexisting attractors for some sets of parameters. However in the presence of quasiperiodic modulation, tori are created in place of periodic orbits and chaos appears via finite torus doublings. Strange nonchaotic attractors (SNAs) are created at the boundary of chaotic and torus dynamics. Multistability is found to be reduced as a function of quasiperiodic modulation strength. It is argued that occurrence of SNAs gives an opportunity of asymptotic predictability of epidemic growth even when the underlying dynamics is strange. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7112454 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | AIP Publishing LLC |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-71124542020-04-02 Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models Bilal, Shakir Singh, Brajendra K. Prasad, Awadhesh Michael, Edwin Chaos Regular Articles We study changes in the bifurcations of seasonally driven compartmental epidemic models, where the transmission rate is modulated temporally. In the presence of periodic modulation of the transmission rate, the dynamics varies from periodic to chaotic. The route to chaos is typically through period doubling bifurcation. There are coexisting attractors for some sets of parameters. However in the presence of quasiperiodic modulation, tori are created in place of periodic orbits and chaos appears via finite torus doublings. Strange nonchaotic attractors (SNAs) are created at the boundary of chaotic and torus dynamics. Multistability is found to be reduced as a function of quasiperiodic modulation strength. It is argued that occurrence of SNAs gives an opportunity of asymptotic predictability of epidemic growth even when the underlying dynamics is strange. AIP Publishing LLC 2016-09 2016-09-22 /pmc/articles/PMC7112454/ /pubmed/27781468 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4963174 Text en © 2016 Author(s) Published by AIP Publishing. 1054-1500/2016/26(9)/093115/8/$30.00 All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Regular Articles Bilal, Shakir Singh, Brajendra K. Prasad, Awadhesh Michael, Edwin Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models |
title | Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models |
title_full | Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models |
title_fullStr | Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models |
title_full_unstemmed | Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models |
title_short | Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models |
title_sort | effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models |
topic | Regular Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7112454/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27781468 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4963174 |
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