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Numerical identification of epidemic thresholds for susceptible-infected-recovered model on finite-size networks

Epidemic threshold has always been a very hot topic for studying epidemic dynamics on complex networks. The previous studies have provided different theoretical predictions of the epidemic threshold for the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, but the numerical verification of these theoretic...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Shu, Panpan, Wang, Wei, Tang, Ming, Do, Younghae
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: AIP Publishing LLC 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7112466/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26117098
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4922153
Descripción
Sumario:Epidemic threshold has always been a very hot topic for studying epidemic dynamics on complex networks. The previous studies have provided different theoretical predictions of the epidemic threshold for the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, but the numerical verification of these theoretical predictions is still lacking. Considering that the large fluctuation of the outbreak size occurs near the epidemic threshold, we propose a novel numerical identification method of SIR epidemic threshold by analyzing the peak of the epidemic variability. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world networks demonstrate that the variability measure can successfully give the numerical threshold for the SIR model. The heterogeneous mean-field prediction agrees very well with the numerical threshold, except the case that the networks are disassortative, in which the quenched mean-field prediction is relatively close to the numerical threshold. Moreover, the numerical method presented is also suitable for the susceptible-infected-susceptible model. This work helps to verify the theoretical analysis of epidemic threshold and would promote further studies on the phase transition of epidemic dynamics.