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Determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle

This paper contributes to the tourism literature by examining determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry (THI) cycle. This study uses a Markov-switching model (MSM) proposed by Hamilton (1989) to analyze the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle. The MSM decomposes the tourist hotel indus...

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Autor principal: Chen, Ming-Hsiang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7115560/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32287742
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.01.003
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author Chen, Ming-Hsiang
author_facet Chen, Ming-Hsiang
author_sort Chen, Ming-Hsiang
collection PubMed
description This paper contributes to the tourism literature by examining determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry (THI) cycle. This study uses a Markov-switching model (MSM) proposed by Hamilton (1989) to analyze the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle. The MSM decomposes the tourist hotel industry cycle into two distinct states: high-growth and low-growth (HGS and LGS). The mean growth rate of HGS is 1.5% and the average growth rate of LGS is 0.07% during the period from December 1999 to February 2011. The corresponding standard deviations in the two regimes are 0.008% and 0.038%, implying that HGS is more stable than LGS. Moreover, the probability of staying in HGS is 94% and the probability of remaining in LGS is 65%. The expected durations of HGS and LGS are about 16 and 3 months, respectively. Further, the paper investigates the factors that keep the THI in HGS. Empirical test results show that growth in the international tourism market and industrial production growth rate are two key factors that keep the THI in HGS, but the SARS outbreak in 2003 has had an adverse effect.
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spelling pubmed-71155602020-04-02 Determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle Chen, Ming-Hsiang Tour Manag Article This paper contributes to the tourism literature by examining determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry (THI) cycle. This study uses a Markov-switching model (MSM) proposed by Hamilton (1989) to analyze the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle. The MSM decomposes the tourist hotel industry cycle into two distinct states: high-growth and low-growth (HGS and LGS). The mean growth rate of HGS is 1.5% and the average growth rate of LGS is 0.07% during the period from December 1999 to February 2011. The corresponding standard deviations in the two regimes are 0.008% and 0.038%, implying that HGS is more stable than LGS. Moreover, the probability of staying in HGS is 94% and the probability of remaining in LGS is 65%. The expected durations of HGS and LGS are about 16 and 3 months, respectively. Further, the paper investigates the factors that keep the THI in HGS. Empirical test results show that growth in the international tourism market and industrial production growth rate are two key factors that keep the THI in HGS, but the SARS outbreak in 2003 has had an adverse effect. Elsevier Ltd. 2013-10 2013-03-14 /pmc/articles/PMC7115560/ /pubmed/32287742 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.01.003 Text en Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Chen, Ming-Hsiang
Determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle
title Determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle
title_full Determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle
title_fullStr Determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle
title_full_unstemmed Determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle
title_short Determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle
title_sort determinants of the taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7115560/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32287742
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.01.003
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