Analysis of optimal timing of tourism demand recovery policies from natural disaster using the contingent behavior method

This paper examines the applicability of contingent behavior (hereafter, CB) method for analyzing dynamic processes and efficient policies in tourism demand recovery. The CB questionnaires used for this study used a hypothetical disaster situation of bird flu in Kyoto, Japan. Safety, event, visitor information, and price discounting policies were designed accordingly. Respondents were then asked about their willingness to travel time. The results showed the optimal timing for devising pertinent policies during the year. We found that the first step requires a safety information announcement, within one week, immediately after disaster site decontamination. The second step is the implementation of event information policy within 24th to 36th week after the disaster. The third step constitutes announcing visitor information within the 37th to 52nd week after the second step. The final step is the implementation of price discounting policy, until the 52nd week, immediately after the third step.