Life events as predictors for disability pension due to musculoskeletal diagnoses: a cohort study of Finnish twins

PURPOSE: Musculoskeletal diagnoses (MSD) are one of the largest diagnostic groups for disability pensions (DP). This study investigated the associations between life events and DP due to MSD, considering sociodemographic, health, and familial factors. METHODS: The study sample included 18,530 Finnish twins, 24–64 years old at baseline, who responded to a questionnaire in 1981 including a 21-item life event inventory. Information on DP with diagnosis codes (ICD codes: M00–M99) were obtained from the official national pension registers. Life events were divided into family- and work-related events. “Positive change in life” was analyzed separately. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: During the follow-up of 23 years, 1273 (7%) individuals were granted DP due to MSD. In discordant pair analysis, family-related events (≥ 4 events) increased (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.31, 2.03) and the absence of such events decreased (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.48, 0.95) the risk of DP due to MSD. For work-related events (≥ 3 events), the risk estimates were non-significant when controlling for familial factors. Having had a positive change in life decreased the risk of DP due to MSD (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.65, 0.96) while controlling for familial confounding, but were non-significant in the full model controlling for various covariates (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.75, 1.12). CONCLUSIONS: The associations between life events and the risk of DP due to MSD are complex and potentially affected by familial and other confounding factors including sociodemographics and health.