Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020

Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Guzzetta, Giorgio, Poletti, Piero, Ajelli, Marco, Trentini, Filippo, Marziano, Valentina, Cereda, Danilo, Tirani, Marcello, Diurno, Giulio, Bodina, Annalisa, Barone, Antonio, Crottogini, Lucia, Gramegna, Maria, Melegaro, Alessia, Merler, Stefano
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2020
Materias:
Rapid Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118340/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32234117
http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
Descripción
Sumario:Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.

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