1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic

We forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 31st, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. We do not model the COVID-19 pandemic; we model only the number of cases. The proposed heuristic is based on a simple observation that the plot of the given data is well approxim...

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Autores principales: Koczkodaj, W.W., Mansournia, M.A., Pedrycz, W., Wolny-Dominiak, A., Zabrodskii, P.F., Strzałka, D., Armstrong, T., Zolfaghari, A.H., Dębski, M., Mazurek, J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Published by Elsevier Inc. 2020
Materias:
Commentary
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118643/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32292911
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100023
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author Koczkodaj, W.W.
Mansournia, M.A.
Pedrycz, W.
Wolny-Dominiak, A.
Zabrodskii, P.F.
Strzałka, D.
Armstrong, T.
Zolfaghari, A.H.
Dębski, M.
Mazurek, J.
author_facet Koczkodaj, W.W.
Mansournia, M.A.
Pedrycz, W.
Wolny-Dominiak, A.
Zabrodskii, P.F.
Strzałka, D.
Armstrong, T.
Zolfaghari, A.H.
Dębski, M.
Mazurek, J.
author_sort Koczkodaj, W.W.
collection PubMed
description We forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 31st, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. We do not model the COVID-19 pandemic; we model only the number of cases. The proposed heuristic is based on a simple observation that the plot of the given data is well approximated by an exponential curve. The exponential curve is used for forecasting the growth of new cases. It has been tested for the last situation report of the last day. Its accuracy has been 1.29% for the last day added and predicted by the 57 previous WHO situation reports (the date 18 March 2020). Prediction, forecast, pandemic, COVID-19, coronavirus, exponential growth curve parameter, heuristic, epidemiology, extrapolation, abductive reasoning, WHO situation report.
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spelling pubmed-71186432020-04-03 1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic Koczkodaj, W.W. Mansournia, M.A. Pedrycz, W. Wolny-Dominiak, A. Zabrodskii, P.F. Strzałka, D. Armstrong, T. Zolfaghari, A.H. Dębski, M. Mazurek, J. Glob Epidemiol Commentary We forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 31st, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. We do not model the COVID-19 pandemic; we model only the number of cases. The proposed heuristic is based on a simple observation that the plot of the given data is well approximated by an exponential curve. The exponential curve is used for forecasting the growth of new cases. It has been tested for the last situation report of the last day. Its accuracy has been 1.29% for the last day added and predicted by the 57 previous WHO situation reports (the date 18 March 2020). Prediction, forecast, pandemic, COVID-19, coronavirus, exponential growth curve parameter, heuristic, epidemiology, extrapolation, abductive reasoning, WHO situation report. Published by Elsevier Inc. 2020-11 2020-03-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7118643/ /pubmed/32292911 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100023 Text en © 2020 Published by Elsevier Inc. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Commentary
Koczkodaj, W.W.
Mansournia, M.A.
Pedrycz, W.
Wolny-Dominiak, A.
Zabrodskii, P.F.
Strzałka, D.
Armstrong, T.
Zolfaghari, A.H.
Dębski, M.
Mazurek, J.
1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic
title 1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic
title_full 1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic
title_fullStr 1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic
title_full_unstemmed 1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic
title_short 1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic
title_sort 1,000,000 cases of covid-19 outside of china: the date predicted by a simple heuristic
topic Commentary
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118643/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32292911
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100023
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