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Uncoordinated Human Responses During Epidemic Outbreaks
Uncoordinated human behavioral responses triggered by risk perception can alter the evolution of an epidemic outbreak further and beyond control measures imposed by public authorities. In fact, spontaneous behavioral changes could develop as a defensive response during the spread of an epidemic, the...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
2012
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7121504/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5474-8_5 |
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author | Poletti, Piero Caprile, Bruno Ajelli, Marco Merler, Stefano |
author_facet | Poletti, Piero Caprile, Bruno Ajelli, Marco Merler, Stefano |
author_sort | Poletti, Piero |
collection | PubMed |
description | Uncoordinated human behavioral responses triggered by risk perception can alter the evolution of an epidemic outbreak further and beyond control measures imposed by public authorities. In fact, spontaneous behavioral changes could develop as a defensive response during the spread of an epidemic, thereby impacting the epidemic dynamics and affecting timing and overall number of cases. In this chapter, a model coupling the classic SIR disease transmission model with an imitation dynamics process is introduced which accounts for the diffusion of different behaviors in the population as a response to the epidemic threat. A detailed analysis of the model identifies the main determinants leading to remarkable alterations in infection dynamics in both risk perception and diffusion of human behavioral patterns. Empirical evidence points to the need of incorporating human behavior in prediction models informing public health decisions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7121504 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2012 |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-71215042020-04-06 Uncoordinated Human Responses During Epidemic Outbreaks Poletti, Piero Caprile, Bruno Ajelli, Marco Merler, Stefano Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases Article Uncoordinated human behavioral responses triggered by risk perception can alter the evolution of an epidemic outbreak further and beyond control measures imposed by public authorities. In fact, spontaneous behavioral changes could develop as a defensive response during the spread of an epidemic, thereby impacting the epidemic dynamics and affecting timing and overall number of cases. In this chapter, a model coupling the classic SIR disease transmission model with an imitation dynamics process is introduced which accounts for the diffusion of different behaviors in the population as a response to the epidemic threat. A detailed analysis of the model identifies the main determinants leading to remarkable alterations in infection dynamics in both risk perception and diffusion of human behavioral patterns. Empirical evidence points to the need of incorporating human behavior in prediction models informing public health decisions. 2012-10-29 /pmc/articles/PMC7121504/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5474-8_5 Text en © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Article Poletti, Piero Caprile, Bruno Ajelli, Marco Merler, Stefano Uncoordinated Human Responses During Epidemic Outbreaks |
title | Uncoordinated Human Responses During Epidemic Outbreaks |
title_full | Uncoordinated Human Responses During Epidemic Outbreaks |
title_fullStr | Uncoordinated Human Responses During Epidemic Outbreaks |
title_full_unstemmed | Uncoordinated Human Responses During Epidemic Outbreaks |
title_short | Uncoordinated Human Responses During Epidemic Outbreaks |
title_sort | uncoordinated human responses during epidemic outbreaks |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7121504/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5474-8_5 |
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