A Health Policy Simulation Model of Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever and Zika Fever

This study proposes a simulation model of a new type of infectious disease based on Ebola haemorrhagic fever and Zika fever. SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model has been widely used to analyse infectious diseases such as influenza, smallpox, bioterrorism, to name a few. On the other hand, Agent-based model begins to spread in recent years. The model enables to represent behaviour of each person in the computer. It also reveals the spread of an infection by simulation of the contact process among people in the model. The study designs a model based on Epstein’s model in which several health policies are decided such as vaccine stocks, antiviral medicine stocks, the number of medical staff to infection control measures and so on. Furthermore, infectious simulation of Ebola haemorrhagic fever and Zika fever, which have not yet any effective vaccine, is also implemented in the model. As results of experiments using the model, it has been found that preventive vaccine, antiviral medicine stocks and the number of medical staff are crucial factors to prevent the spread. In addition, a modern city is vulnerable to Zika fever due to commuting by train.