Studying Future Disasters and Crises: A Heuristic Approach

Over time, new types of crises and disasters have emerged. We argue that new types of adversity will continue to emerge. In this chapter, we offer a framework to study and interpret new forms of crises and disasters. This framework is informed by historical insights on societal interpretations of crises and disasters. We are particularly focused here on the rise of transboundary crises – those crises that traverse boundaries between countries and policy systems. We identify the characteristics of these transboundary disruptions, sketch a few scenarios and explore the societal vulnerabilities to this type of threat. We end by discussing some possible implications for planning and preparation practices.