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Multiple peaks patterns of epidemic spreading in multi-layer networks

The study of epidemic spreading on populations of networked individuals has seen recently a great deal of significant progresses. A common point in many of past studies is, however, that there is only one peak of infected density in each single epidemic spreading episode. At variance, real data from...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Zheng, Muhua, Wang, Wei, Tang, Ming, Zhou, Jie, Boccaletti, S., Liu, Zonghua
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7126231/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32288351
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2017.12.026
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author Zheng, Muhua
Wang, Wei
Tang, Ming
Zhou, Jie
Boccaletti, S.
Liu, Zonghua
author_facet Zheng, Muhua
Wang, Wei
Tang, Ming
Zhou, Jie
Boccaletti, S.
Liu, Zonghua
author_sort Zheng, Muhua
collection PubMed
description The study of epidemic spreading on populations of networked individuals has seen recently a great deal of significant progresses. A common point in many of past studies is, however, that there is only one peak of infected density in each single epidemic spreading episode. At variance, real data from different cities over the world suggest that, besides a major single peak trait of infected density, a finite probability exists for a pattern made of two (or multiple) peaks. We show that such a latter feature is distinctive of a multilayered network of interactions, and reveal that a two peaks pattern may emerge from different time delays at which the epidemic spreads in between the two layers. Further, we show that the essential ingredient is a weak coupling condition between the layers themselves, while different degree distributions in the two layers are also helpful. Moreover, an edge-based theory is developed which fully explains all numerical results. Our findings may therefore be of significance for protecting secondary disasters of epidemics, which are definitely undesired in real life.
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spelling pubmed-71262312020-04-08 Multiple peaks patterns of epidemic spreading in multi-layer networks Zheng, Muhua Wang, Wei Tang, Ming Zhou, Jie Boccaletti, S. Liu, Zonghua Chaos Solitons Fractals Article The study of epidemic spreading on populations of networked individuals has seen recently a great deal of significant progresses. A common point in many of past studies is, however, that there is only one peak of infected density in each single epidemic spreading episode. At variance, real data from different cities over the world suggest that, besides a major single peak trait of infected density, a finite probability exists for a pattern made of two (or multiple) peaks. We show that such a latter feature is distinctive of a multilayered network of interactions, and reveal that a two peaks pattern may emerge from different time delays at which the epidemic spreads in between the two layers. Further, we show that the essential ingredient is a weak coupling condition between the layers themselves, while different degree distributions in the two layers are also helpful. Moreover, an edge-based theory is developed which fully explains all numerical results. Our findings may therefore be of significance for protecting secondary disasters of epidemics, which are definitely undesired in real life. Elsevier Ltd. 2018-02 2018-01-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7126231/ /pubmed/32288351 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2017.12.026 Text en © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Zheng, Muhua
Wang, Wei
Tang, Ming
Zhou, Jie
Boccaletti, S.
Liu, Zonghua
Multiple peaks patterns of epidemic spreading in multi-layer networks
title Multiple peaks patterns of epidemic spreading in multi-layer networks
title_full Multiple peaks patterns of epidemic spreading in multi-layer networks
title_fullStr Multiple peaks patterns of epidemic spreading in multi-layer networks
title_full_unstemmed Multiple peaks patterns of epidemic spreading in multi-layer networks
title_short Multiple peaks patterns of epidemic spreading in multi-layer networks
title_sort multiple peaks patterns of epidemic spreading in multi-layer networks
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7126231/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32288351
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2017.12.026
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