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Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic

Within the standard SIR model with spatial structure, we propose two models for the superspreader. In one model, superspreaders have intrinsically strong infectiousness. In other model, they have many social connections. By Monte Carlo simulation, we obtain the percolation probability, the propagati...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Fujie, Ryo, Odagaki, Takashi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2007
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7127014/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32288078
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2006.08.050
Descripción
Sumario:Within the standard SIR model with spatial structure, we propose two models for the superspreader. In one model, superspreaders have intrinsically strong infectiousness. In other model, they have many social connections. By Monte Carlo simulation, we obtain the percolation probability, the propagation speed, the epidemic curve, the distribution of secondary infected and the propagation path as functions of population and the density of superspreaders. By comparing the results with the data of SARS in Singapore 2003, we conclude that the latter model can explain the observation.