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Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic

Within the standard SIR model with spatial structure, we propose two models for the superspreader. In one model, superspreaders have intrinsically strong infectiousness. In other model, they have many social connections. By Monte Carlo simulation, we obtain the percolation probability, the propagati...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Fujie, Ryo, Odagaki, Takashi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2007
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7127014/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32288078
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2006.08.050
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author Fujie, Ryo
Odagaki, Takashi
author_facet Fujie, Ryo
Odagaki, Takashi
author_sort Fujie, Ryo
collection PubMed
description Within the standard SIR model with spatial structure, we propose two models for the superspreader. In one model, superspreaders have intrinsically strong infectiousness. In other model, they have many social connections. By Monte Carlo simulation, we obtain the percolation probability, the propagation speed, the epidemic curve, the distribution of secondary infected and the propagation path as functions of population and the density of superspreaders. By comparing the results with the data of SARS in Singapore 2003, we conclude that the latter model can explain the observation.
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spelling pubmed-71270142020-04-08 Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic Fujie, Ryo Odagaki, Takashi Physica A Article Within the standard SIR model with spatial structure, we propose two models for the superspreader. In one model, superspreaders have intrinsically strong infectiousness. In other model, they have many social connections. By Monte Carlo simulation, we obtain the percolation probability, the propagation speed, the epidemic curve, the distribution of secondary infected and the propagation path as functions of population and the density of superspreaders. By comparing the results with the data of SARS in Singapore 2003, we conclude that the latter model can explain the observation. Elsevier B.V. 2007-02-01 2006-09-14 /pmc/articles/PMC7127014/ /pubmed/32288078 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2006.08.050 Text en Copyright © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Fujie, Ryo
Odagaki, Takashi
Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic
title Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic
title_full Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic
title_fullStr Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic
title_full_unstemmed Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic
title_short Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic
title_sort effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7127014/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32288078
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2006.08.050
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