Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia

We review the basic concepts of intervention analysis in the context of structural time series models and we apply this methodology to investigate the possible reduction in monthly crime rates reported from January 1984 up to and including December 2010 after Virginia abolished parole and reformed s...

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Autores principales: Vujić, Sunčica, Commandeur, Jacques J.F., Koopman, Siem Jan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2016
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7127709/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32287827
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.017
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author Vujić, Sunčica
Commandeur, Jacques J.F.
Koopman, Siem Jan
author_facet Vujić, Sunčica
Commandeur, Jacques J.F.
Koopman, Siem Jan
author_sort Vujić, Sunčica
collection PubMed
description We review the basic concepts of intervention analysis in the context of structural time series models and we apply this methodology to investigate the possible reduction in monthly crime rates reported from January 1984 up to and including December 2010 after Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing in January 1995. We find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. The robustness of our results is investigated with an automatic detection of breaks procedure as well as with analyses of quarterly rather than monthly data.
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spelling pubmed-71277092020-04-08 Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia Vujić, Sunčica Commandeur, Jacques J.F. Koopman, Siem Jan Econ Model Article We review the basic concepts of intervention analysis in the context of structural time series models and we apply this methodology to investigate the possible reduction in monthly crime rates reported from January 1984 up to and including December 2010 after Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing in January 1995. We find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. The robustness of our results is investigated with an automatic detection of breaks procedure as well as with analyses of quarterly rather than monthly data. Elsevier B.V. 2016-09 2016-03-17 /pmc/articles/PMC7127709/ /pubmed/32287827 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.017 Text en © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Vujić, Sunčica
Commandeur, Jacques J.F.
Koopman, Siem Jan
Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia
title Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia
title_full Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia
title_fullStr Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia
title_full_unstemmed Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia
title_short Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia
title_sort intervention time series analysis of crime rates: the case of sentence reform in virginia
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7127709/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32287827
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.017
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