Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data

We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred fr...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wang, Wendi, Ruan, Shigui
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2004
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7134597/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15019504
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2003.11.014
Descripción
Sumario:We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred from suspect class to probable class from May 2. By simplifying the model to a two-compartment suspect-probable model and a single-compartment probable model and using limited data, we are able to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. We estimate that the reproduction number varies from 1.0698 to 3.2524 and obtain certain important epidemiological parameters.

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