Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data

We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred fr...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wang, Wendi, Ruan, Shigui
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2004
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7134597/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15019504
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2003.11.014
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author Wang, Wendi
Ruan, Shigui
author_facet Wang, Wendi
Ruan, Shigui
author_sort Wang, Wendi
collection PubMed
description We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred from suspect class to probable class from May 2. By simplifying the model to a two-compartment suspect-probable model and a single-compartment probable model and using limited data, we are able to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. We estimate that the reproduction number varies from 1.0698 to 3.2524 and obtain certain important epidemiological parameters.
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spelling pubmed-71345972020-04-08 Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data Wang, Wendi Ruan, Shigui J Theor Biol Article We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred from suspect class to probable class from May 2. By simplifying the model to a two-compartment suspect-probable model and a single-compartment probable model and using limited data, we are able to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. We estimate that the reproduction number varies from 1.0698 to 3.2524 and obtain certain important epidemiological parameters. Elsevier Ltd. 2004-04-07 2003-12-13 /pmc/articles/PMC7134597/ /pubmed/15019504 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2003.11.014 Text en Copyright © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Wang, Wendi
Ruan, Shigui
Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data
title Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data
title_full Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data
title_fullStr Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data
title_full_unstemmed Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data
title_short Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data
title_sort simulating the sars outbreak in beijing with limited data
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7134597/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15019504
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2003.11.014
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