Investigating changes in unintended pregnancies before and after the changes in the family planning policies in Iran: A multivariate decomposition analysis

Background: Unintended pregnancy is a global public health problem that has adverse health, economic, and social consequences for families and societies. This study aimed to measure levels of and analyze changes in unintended pregnancies before and after the changes in the family planning policies in Iran. Methods: Data were extracted from Iran's Demographic and Health Surveys in 2000, 2010, and 2015. The study population consisted of married pregnant women aged 15-49 years. In this study, the data of 112 400, 29 609, and 32 264 households and 4976, 1123, and 900 married pregnant women in 2000, 2010 and 2015, respectively, were used. Logistic regression model was applied to estimate effect of the study explanatory variables on unintended pregnancy in each year, and contribution of different factors to the changes in unintended pregnancies was investigated using multivariate decomposition method. All the study analyses were performed using the Stata software, with the statistical significance level of 0.05. Results: The rate of unintended pregnancies decreased by 13% in 2000-2010 and by 1.3% in 2010-2015. Changes in women's likelihood of experiencing unintended pregnancy positively contributed to unintended pregnancy reduction in 2000-2010 and 2010- 2015; however, the change patterns were different. Changes in the distribution of women's characteristics had positive and negative contributions in 2000-10 and 2010-15, respectively. An increase in pregnant women's parity was the main factor with counteracting effect on unintended pregnancy reduction in 2010-2015. Conclusion: Unintended pregnancies decreased among Iranian married women over the study years, but its reduction was slowed down after the changes in the family planning policies. Policy actions in health and other socioeconomic sectors aiming to encourage nulliparous women to become pregnant and help nulliparous women, women with the parity of more than 2, and women in the middle and late reproductive ages to reduce their risk of unintended pregnancy, can accelerate the trend of unintended pregnancy reduction in the future.