A validation of the Malaria Atlas Project maps and development of a new map of malaria transmission in Sokoto, Nigeria: a cross-sectional study using geographic information systems

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality among children in Africa. There is inadequate information regarding malaria transmission-intensity in some of the worst-affected parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) was developed in 2006, to project estimates of malaria transmission intensity where this data is not available, based on the vector behaviour for malaria. Data from malariometric studies globally were obtained and modelled to provide prevalence estimates. The sensitivity of these maps, however, reduces with unavailability of data. This necessitates a validation of these maps locally, and investigation into alternative methods of predicting prevalence to guide malaria control interventions and improve their efficiency and effectiveness. This study was conducted to compare the true estimates in Sokoto, Nigeria, with the MAP projections for north-western Nigeria, and it proposes an alternative way of mapping malaria intensity in Nigeria and beyond. METHODS: A malariometric survey was conducted including children aged 2–10 years in communities in Wamakko Local Government Area (LGA) of Sokoto State, Nigeria. Children had blood examinations for the presence of malaria parasitaemia and a physical examination for the signs of clinical malaria. All the sites from which children were included in the study were geo-located using a hand-held Global Positioning System (GPS) device and compared this to MAP maps of the same area. A mapping software was also used to generate a malaria prevalence map of the study area, considering the average flight distances of the vector. RESULTS: The prevalence among children 2 to 10 years was found to be 34.8% which was within the 30–40% projected prevalence for the study area by MAPs. However, it was much lower than the projection during the dry season (20.2%) and higher than the projected estimate during the rainy season (49.3%). There was monoparasitaemia of Plasmodium falciparum throughout the study area, although the study was not specifically designed to identify other species. The prevalence of parasitaemia and splenomegaly were similar when overall and when considered by age of the participants. The study also generated a map of malaria transmission, which mapped out areas where the prevalence was confirmed or likely to be to be within the range of 30–40%, based on the sites which constituted the study area for this study. CONCLUSION: The study concludes that the prevalence of malaria and its transmission intensity in Sokoto are similar to Malaria Atlas Project predictions for the area and that, for malaria control planning purposes, the projections may be utilized, with more efforts at validation of the MAPs in other locations and terrains. Also, the vector behaviour may be used to map transmission of malaria and other vector-transmitted diseases, where this information is lacking.