Routinely MUAC screening for severe acute malnutrition should consider the gender and age group bias in the Ethiopian non-emergency context

Early identification of children <5 years with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is a high priority to reduce child mortality and improved health outcomes. Current WHO guidelines for community screening for SAM recommend a Mid-Upper-Arm Circumference (MUAC) of less than 115 mm to identify children with SAM, but this cut-off does not identify a significant number of children with a weight-for-height Z-score <-3. To establish new specific MUAC cut-offs, pooled data was obtained for 25,755 children from 49 SMART recent surveys in Ethiopia (2016–2019). Sensitivity, proportion of false positive, and areas under receiver-operator characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated. MUAC below 115mm alone identified 55% of children with SAM identified with both methodologies. MUAC was worse in identifying older children (21%), those from a pastoral region (42%) and boys (41%). Using current WHO cut-offs, the sensitivity (Se) of MUAC below 115mm to identify the children severly malnourished screened through Weight-for-height below-3 was 16%. Analysing the ROC curve and Youden Index, Se and Specificity (Sp) were maximal at a MUAC < 133 mm cut-off to identify SAM (respectively Se 61.1%, Sp 81.4%). However, given the high proportion of false-positive children, according to gender, region and age groups, a cut-off around 125 mm to screen SAM could be the optimal one. In Ethiopia, implementation of a MUAC-only screening program for the identification of severe acute malnutrition with the actual cut-off of 115 mm would be unethical as it will lead to many children remaining undiagnosed and untreated. In addition, future study on implementation challenge on screening children with a higher cut-off or gender/age sensitive ones should be assessed with the collection of mortality and morbidity data to ensure that the most in need are being taking care of.