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Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model
Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 causes of death globally and the leading cause of death by a single infectious pathogen. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the End TB Strategy, which targets a 90% reduction in the incidence rate by the year 2035 compared to the level in the year...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7144981/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32271808 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230964 |
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author | Kim, Soyoung de los Reyes V, Aurelio A. Jung, Eunok |
author_facet | Kim, Soyoung de los Reyes V, Aurelio A. Jung, Eunok |
author_sort | Kim, Soyoung |
collection | PubMed |
description | Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 causes of death globally and the leading cause of death by a single infectious pathogen. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the End TB Strategy, which targets a 90% reduction in the incidence rate by the year 2035 compared to the level in the year 2015. In this work, a TB model is considered to understand the transmission dynamics in the top three TB burden countries—India, China, and Indonesia. Country-specific epidemiological parameters were identified using data reported by the WHO. If India and Indonesia succeed in enhancing their treatment protocols and increase treatment and treatment success rate to that of China, the incidence rate could be reduced by 65.99% and 68.49%, respectively, by the end of 2035. Evidently, complementary interventions are essential to achieve the WHO target. Our analytical approach utilizes optimal control theory to obtain time-dependent nonpharmaceutical and latent case finding controls. The objective functional of the optimal control problem includes a payoff term reflecting the goal set by WHO. Appropriate combinations of control strategies are investigated. Based on the results, gradual enhancement and continuous implementation of intervention measures are recommended in each country. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7144981 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-71449812020-04-10 Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model Kim, Soyoung de los Reyes V, Aurelio A. Jung, Eunok PLoS One Research Article Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 causes of death globally and the leading cause of death by a single infectious pathogen. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the End TB Strategy, which targets a 90% reduction in the incidence rate by the year 2035 compared to the level in the year 2015. In this work, a TB model is considered to understand the transmission dynamics in the top three TB burden countries—India, China, and Indonesia. Country-specific epidemiological parameters were identified using data reported by the WHO. If India and Indonesia succeed in enhancing their treatment protocols and increase treatment and treatment success rate to that of China, the incidence rate could be reduced by 65.99% and 68.49%, respectively, by the end of 2035. Evidently, complementary interventions are essential to achieve the WHO target. Our analytical approach utilizes optimal control theory to obtain time-dependent nonpharmaceutical and latent case finding controls. The objective functional of the optimal control problem includes a payoff term reflecting the goal set by WHO. Appropriate combinations of control strategies are investigated. Based on the results, gradual enhancement and continuous implementation of intervention measures are recommended in each country. Public Library of Science 2020-04-09 /pmc/articles/PMC7144981/ /pubmed/32271808 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230964 Text en © 2020 Kim et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Kim, Soyoung de los Reyes V, Aurelio A. Jung, Eunok Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model |
title | Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model |
title_full | Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model |
title_fullStr | Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model |
title_full_unstemmed | Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model |
title_short | Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model |
title_sort | country-specific intervention strategies for top three tb burden countries using mathematical model |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7144981/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32271808 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230964 |
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