Changes in frailty among community-dwelling Chinese older adults and its predictors: evidence from a two-year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND: It is important to clarify the transitions and related factors of frailty for prevention of frailty. We evaluated the transitions of frailty among community-dwelling older adults and examined the predictors of the transitions. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted among 3988 community residents aged ≥60 years during 2015 and 2017. A multiple deficits approach was used to construct the Frailty Index (FI) according to the methodology of FI construction, and sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyles were also collected in 2015. After 2-year follow-up, the transitions of frailty between baseline and were evaluated. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to examine associations between predictors and the transitions of frailty. RESULTS: The proportion of robust, prefrail, and frail was 79.5, 16.4, and 4.1% among 3988 participants at baseline, which changed to 68.2, 23.0, and 8.8% after 2 years with 127 deaths and 23 dropped out. Twelve kinds of transitions from the three frailty statuses at baseline to four outcomes at follow-up (including death) significantly differed within each of gender and age group, as well between genders and age groups. Among these, 7.8% of prefrail or frail elders improved, 70.0% retained their frailty status, and 22.2% of robust or prefrail elders worsened in frailty status. In multivariable models, age was significantly associated with changes in frailty except for in the frail group; higher educational level and working predicted a lower risk of robust worsening. Of the lifestyle predictors, no shower facilities at home predicted a higher risk of robust worsening; more frequent physical exercise predicted a lower risk of robust worsening and a higher chance of frailty improvement; more frequent neighbor interaction predicted a lower risk of robust worsening and prefrail worsening; and more frequent social participation predicted a higher chance of prefrail improvement. CONCLUSIONS: The status of frailty was reversible among community-dwelling elderly, and sociodemographic and lifestyle factors were related to changes in frailty. These findings help health practitioners to recognize susceptible individuals in a community and provide health promotional planning to target aged populations.