Cargando…

Herausforderungen in der Seuchenkontrolle und der jetzigen Pandemie durch verzerrte Verteilungen

BACKGROUND: The pandemic phase 3—mitigation—by the SARS-Coronavirus‑2 is currently taking on speed in Germany. Skewed distributions of key epidemiological parameters of the virus and patient care are a challenge for the control of the outbreak as well as keeping the system functional. METHODS: The s...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Weigl, Josef
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7149270/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11553-020-00775-z
_version_ 1783520775415791616
author Weigl, Josef
author_facet Weigl, Josef
author_sort Weigl, Josef
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The pandemic phase 3—mitigation—by the SARS-Coronavirus‑2 is currently taking on speed in Germany. Skewed distributions of key epidemiological parameters of the virus and patient care are a challenge for the control of the outbreak as well as keeping the system functional. METHODS: The skewed parameters—pre-patency period, incubation period, duration of viral shedding and time to admission to hospital—are analyzed in regard to their impact and possible countermeasures. RESULTS: The skewed distributions are exclusively time related variables. They are a handicap for outbreak control as well patient management. Optimization between residual open flanks and the efforts to close them is difficult. The main stakeholders are the local health departments, the diagnostic laboratories, the health care infrastructure and finally the citizens in regard to the burden due to non-pharmaceutical interventions including quarantine and isolation. The duration of quarantine and isolation should urgently be shortened for health care workers (HCW) as well as people in critical infrastructure by ready (re-) testing. Calculated risks have to be taken within a phase 3 of a pandemic to keep a system going. CONCLUSIONS: The skewed distributions are a special challenge for infectious disease control. In the case of ending quarantine and isolation in phase 3 of the pandemic, they should be judged specifically in regard to the client/patient. Cumulative distribution functions are very helpful in this regard.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7149270
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2020
publisher Springer Berlin Heidelberg
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-71492702020-04-13 Herausforderungen in der Seuchenkontrolle und der jetzigen Pandemie durch verzerrte Verteilungen Weigl, Josef Präv Gesundheitsf Originalarbeit BACKGROUND: The pandemic phase 3—mitigation—by the SARS-Coronavirus‑2 is currently taking on speed in Germany. Skewed distributions of key epidemiological parameters of the virus and patient care are a challenge for the control of the outbreak as well as keeping the system functional. METHODS: The skewed parameters—pre-patency period, incubation period, duration of viral shedding and time to admission to hospital—are analyzed in regard to their impact and possible countermeasures. RESULTS: The skewed distributions are exclusively time related variables. They are a handicap for outbreak control as well patient management. Optimization between residual open flanks and the efforts to close them is difficult. The main stakeholders are the local health departments, the diagnostic laboratories, the health care infrastructure and finally the citizens in regard to the burden due to non-pharmaceutical interventions including quarantine and isolation. The duration of quarantine and isolation should urgently be shortened for health care workers (HCW) as well as people in critical infrastructure by ready (re-) testing. Calculated risks have to be taken within a phase 3 of a pandemic to keep a system going. CONCLUSIONS: The skewed distributions are a special challenge for infectious disease control. In the case of ending quarantine and isolation in phase 3 of the pandemic, they should be judged specifically in regard to the client/patient. Cumulative distribution functions are very helpful in this regard. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020-03-30 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC7149270/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11553-020-00775-z Text en © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Originalarbeit
Weigl, Josef
Herausforderungen in der Seuchenkontrolle und der jetzigen Pandemie durch verzerrte Verteilungen
title Herausforderungen in der Seuchenkontrolle und der jetzigen Pandemie durch verzerrte Verteilungen
title_full Herausforderungen in der Seuchenkontrolle und der jetzigen Pandemie durch verzerrte Verteilungen
title_fullStr Herausforderungen in der Seuchenkontrolle und der jetzigen Pandemie durch verzerrte Verteilungen
title_full_unstemmed Herausforderungen in der Seuchenkontrolle und der jetzigen Pandemie durch verzerrte Verteilungen
title_short Herausforderungen in der Seuchenkontrolle und der jetzigen Pandemie durch verzerrte Verteilungen
title_sort herausforderungen in der seuchenkontrolle und der jetzigen pandemie durch verzerrte verteilungen
topic Originalarbeit
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7149270/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11553-020-00775-z
work_keys_str_mv AT weigljosef herausforderungeninderseuchenkontrolleundderjetzigenpandemiedurchverzerrteverteilungen