Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions

We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to 31 January 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the paramete...

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Autores principales: Liu, Zhihua, Magal, Pierre, Seydi, Ousmane, Webb, Glenn
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7150940/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32182724
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology9030050
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author Liu, Zhihua
Magal, Pierre
Seydi, Ousmane
Webb, Glenn
author_facet Liu, Zhihua
Magal, Pierre
Seydi, Ousmane
Webb, Glenn
author_sort Liu, Zhihua
collection PubMed
description We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to 31 January 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model, we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying levels of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling COVID-19 epidemics.
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spelling pubmed-71509402020-04-20 Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions Liu, Zhihua Magal, Pierre Seydi, Ousmane Webb, Glenn Biology (Basel) Article We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to 31 January 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model, we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying levels of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling COVID-19 epidemics. MDPI 2020-03-08 /pmc/articles/PMC7150940/ /pubmed/32182724 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology9030050 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Liu, Zhihua
Magal, Pierre
Seydi, Ousmane
Webb, Glenn
Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions
title Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions
title_full Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions
title_fullStr Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions
title_full_unstemmed Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions
title_short Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions
title_sort understanding unreported cases in the covid-19 epidemic outbreak in wuhan, china, and the importance of major public health interventions
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7150940/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32182724
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology9030050
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