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Examining the Effect of Host Recruitment Rates on the Transmission of Streptococcus suis in Nursery Swine Populations

Streptococcus suis is a swine pathogen that is capable of causing severe outbreaks of disease in the nursery. Demographic parameters such as host recruitment rates can have profound effects on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and, thus, are critically important in high-turnover popul...

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Autores principales: Giang, Elissa, Hetman, Benjamin M., Sargeant, Jan M., Poljak, Zvonimir, Greer, Amy L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7157574/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32121513
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens9030174
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author Giang, Elissa
Hetman, Benjamin M.
Sargeant, Jan M.
Poljak, Zvonimir
Greer, Amy L.
author_facet Giang, Elissa
Hetman, Benjamin M.
Sargeant, Jan M.
Poljak, Zvonimir
Greer, Amy L.
author_sort Giang, Elissa
collection PubMed
description Streptococcus suis is a swine pathogen that is capable of causing severe outbreaks of disease in the nursery. Demographic parameters such as host recruitment rates can have profound effects on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and, thus, are critically important in high-turnover populations such as farmed swine. However, knowledge concerning the implications that such parameters have on S. suis disease control remains unknown. A stochastic mathematical model incorporating sub-clinically infected pigs was developed to capture the effects of changes in host recruitment rate on disease incidence. Compared to our base model scenario, our results show that monthly introduction of pigs into the nursery (instead of weekly introduction) reduced cumulative cases of S. suis by up to 59%, while increasing disease-removal rates alone averted up to 64% of cases. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the course of infection in sub-clinically infected pigs was highly influential and generated significant variability in the model outcomes. Our model findings suggest that modifications to host recruitment rates could be leveraged as a tool for S. suis disease control, however improving our understanding of additional factors that influence the risk of transmission would improve the precision of the model estimates.
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spelling pubmed-71575742020-05-01 Examining the Effect of Host Recruitment Rates on the Transmission of Streptococcus suis in Nursery Swine Populations Giang, Elissa Hetman, Benjamin M. Sargeant, Jan M. Poljak, Zvonimir Greer, Amy L. Pathogens Article Streptococcus suis is a swine pathogen that is capable of causing severe outbreaks of disease in the nursery. Demographic parameters such as host recruitment rates can have profound effects on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and, thus, are critically important in high-turnover populations such as farmed swine. However, knowledge concerning the implications that such parameters have on S. suis disease control remains unknown. A stochastic mathematical model incorporating sub-clinically infected pigs was developed to capture the effects of changes in host recruitment rate on disease incidence. Compared to our base model scenario, our results show that monthly introduction of pigs into the nursery (instead of weekly introduction) reduced cumulative cases of S. suis by up to 59%, while increasing disease-removal rates alone averted up to 64% of cases. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the course of infection in sub-clinically infected pigs was highly influential and generated significant variability in the model outcomes. Our model findings suggest that modifications to host recruitment rates could be leveraged as a tool for S. suis disease control, however improving our understanding of additional factors that influence the risk of transmission would improve the precision of the model estimates. MDPI 2020-03-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7157574/ /pubmed/32121513 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens9030174 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Giang, Elissa
Hetman, Benjamin M.
Sargeant, Jan M.
Poljak, Zvonimir
Greer, Amy L.
Examining the Effect of Host Recruitment Rates on the Transmission of Streptococcus suis in Nursery Swine Populations
title Examining the Effect of Host Recruitment Rates on the Transmission of Streptococcus suis in Nursery Swine Populations
title_full Examining the Effect of Host Recruitment Rates on the Transmission of Streptococcus suis in Nursery Swine Populations
title_fullStr Examining the Effect of Host Recruitment Rates on the Transmission of Streptococcus suis in Nursery Swine Populations
title_full_unstemmed Examining the Effect of Host Recruitment Rates on the Transmission of Streptococcus suis in Nursery Swine Populations
title_short Examining the Effect of Host Recruitment Rates on the Transmission of Streptococcus suis in Nursery Swine Populations
title_sort examining the effect of host recruitment rates on the transmission of streptococcus suis in nursery swine populations
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7157574/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32121513
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens9030174
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