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Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises

Infectious disease crises have substantial economic impact. Yet mainstream macroeconomic forecasting rarely takes account of the risk of potential pandemics. This oversight contributes to persistent underestimation of infectious disease risk and consequent underinvestment in preparedness and respons...

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Autores principales: Sands, Peter, El Turabi, Anas, Saynisch, Philip A, Dzau, Victor J
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7159273/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27212427
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30594-3
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author Sands, Peter
El Turabi, Anas
Saynisch, Philip A
Dzau, Victor J
author_facet Sands, Peter
El Turabi, Anas
Saynisch, Philip A
Dzau, Victor J
author_sort Sands, Peter
collection PubMed
description Infectious disease crises have substantial economic impact. Yet mainstream macroeconomic forecasting rarely takes account of the risk of potential pandemics. This oversight contributes to persistent underestimation of infectious disease risk and consequent underinvestment in preparedness and response to infectious disease crises. One reason why economists fail to include economic vulnerability to infectious disease threats in their assessments is the absence of readily available and digestible input data to inform such analysis. In this Viewpoint we suggest an approach by which the global health community can help to generate such inputs, and a framework to use these inputs to assess the economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises of individual countries and regions. We argue that incorporation of these risks in influential macroeconomic analyses such as the reports from the International Monetary Fund's Article IV consultations, rating agencies and risk consultancies would simultaneously improve the quality of economic risk forecasting and reinforce individual government and donor incentives to mitigate infectious disease risks.
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spelling pubmed-71592732020-04-16 Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises Sands, Peter El Turabi, Anas Saynisch, Philip A Dzau, Victor J Lancet Viewpoint Infectious disease crises have substantial economic impact. Yet mainstream macroeconomic forecasting rarely takes account of the risk of potential pandemics. This oversight contributes to persistent underestimation of infectious disease risk and consequent underinvestment in preparedness and response to infectious disease crises. One reason why economists fail to include economic vulnerability to infectious disease threats in their assessments is the absence of readily available and digestible input data to inform such analysis. In this Viewpoint we suggest an approach by which the global health community can help to generate such inputs, and a framework to use these inputs to assess the economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises of individual countries and regions. We argue that incorporation of these risks in influential macroeconomic analyses such as the reports from the International Monetary Fund's Article IV consultations, rating agencies and risk consultancies would simultaneously improve the quality of economic risk forecasting and reinforce individual government and donor incentives to mitigate infectious disease risks. Elsevier Ltd. 2016 2016-05-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7159273/ /pubmed/27212427 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30594-3 Text en © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Viewpoint
Sands, Peter
El Turabi, Anas
Saynisch, Philip A
Dzau, Victor J
Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises
title Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises
title_full Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises
title_fullStr Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises
title_short Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises
title_sort assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises
topic Viewpoint
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7159273/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27212427
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30594-3
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