Assessing water distribution and agricultural expansion in the Cele Oasis, China

Oases support 90% of the province’s inhabitants and produce more than 95% of the social wealth in Xinjiang Province of China. Oases’ dependency on water availability from mountainous regions plays a critical factor in the sustainability of agricultural practices and oasis expansion. In this study, we have chosen the Cele Oasis located in the south rim of the Taklimakan Desert, typical of oases in the region, as a case study to examine water availability. With over 97% of Cele’s economy tied to agriculture, unfettered expansion of the oasis into the desert has raised concern on water availability. A spatial and temporal analysis of water availability is performed using newly available data to determine whether agricultural production within the Cele Oasis has overexploited available water resources or if feasible expansion of agricultural production is feasible beyond its current boundary. Transferability of the methodology for assessing water availability spatially and temporally will be beneficial to other oases in the arid region that face similar concerns.