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Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing

The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2) is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different tra...

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Autores principales: Ferretti, Luca, Wymant, Chris, Kendall, Michelle, Zhao, Lele, Nurtay, Anel, Abeler-Dörner, Lucie, Parker, Michael, Bonsall, David, Fraser, Christophe
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7164555/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32234805
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abb6936
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author Ferretti, Luca
Wymant, Chris
Kendall, Michelle
Zhao, Lele
Nurtay, Anel
Abeler-Dörner, Lucie
Parker, Michael
Bonsall, David
Fraser, Christophe
author_facet Ferretti, Luca
Wymant, Chris
Kendall, Michelle
Zhao, Lele
Nurtay, Anel
Abeler-Dörner, Lucie
Parker, Michael
Bonsall, David
Fraser, Christophe
author_sort Ferretti, Luca
collection PubMed
description The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2) is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact tracing needed to stop the epidemic. Although SARS-CoV-2 is spreading too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, it could be controlled if this process were faster, more efficient, and happened at scale. A contact-tracing app that builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without resorting to mass quarantines (“lockdowns”) that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.
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spelling pubmed-71645552020-04-20 Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing Ferretti, Luca Wymant, Chris Kendall, Michelle Zhao, Lele Nurtay, Anel Abeler-Dörner, Lucie Parker, Michael Bonsall, David Fraser, Christophe Science Research Articles The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2) is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact tracing needed to stop the epidemic. Although SARS-CoV-2 is spreading too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, it could be controlled if this process were faster, more efficient, and happened at scale. A contact-tracing app that builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without resorting to mass quarantines (“lockdowns”) that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2020-05-08 2020-03-31 /pmc/articles/PMC7164555/ /pubmed/32234805 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abb6936 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Ferretti, Luca
Wymant, Chris
Kendall, Michelle
Zhao, Lele
Nurtay, Anel
Abeler-Dörner, Lucie
Parker, Michael
Bonsall, David
Fraser, Christophe
Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
title Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
title_full Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
title_fullStr Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
title_short Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
title_sort quantifying sars-cov-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7164555/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32234805
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abb6936
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