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Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries

In this paper, we employed a segmented Poisson model to analyze the available daily new cases data of the COVID-19 outbreaks in the six Western countries of the Group of Seven, namely, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK and USA. We incorporated the governments’ interventions (stay-at-home advises/or...

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Autores principales: Zhang, Xiaolei, Ma, Renjun, Wang, Lin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7167569/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32313405
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109829
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author Zhang, Xiaolei
Ma, Renjun
Wang, Lin
author_facet Zhang, Xiaolei
Ma, Renjun
Wang, Lin
author_sort Zhang, Xiaolei
collection PubMed
description In this paper, we employed a segmented Poisson model to analyze the available daily new cases data of the COVID-19 outbreaks in the six Western countries of the Group of Seven, namely, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK and USA. We incorporated the governments’ interventions (stay-at-home advises/orders, lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing) against COVID-19 into consideration. Our analysis allowed us to make a statistical prediction on the turning point (the time that the daily new cases peak), the duration (the period that the outbreak lasts) and the attack rate (the percentage of the total population that will be infected over the course of the outbreak) for these countries.
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spelling pubmed-71675692020-04-20 Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries Zhang, Xiaolei Ma, Renjun Wang, Lin Chaos Solitons Fractals Article In this paper, we employed a segmented Poisson model to analyze the available daily new cases data of the COVID-19 outbreaks in the six Western countries of the Group of Seven, namely, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK and USA. We incorporated the governments’ interventions (stay-at-home advises/orders, lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing) against COVID-19 into consideration. Our analysis allowed us to make a statistical prediction on the turning point (the time that the daily new cases peak), the duration (the period that the outbreak lasts) and the attack rate (the percentage of the total population that will be infected over the course of the outbreak) for these countries. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-06 2020-04-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7167569/ /pubmed/32313405 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109829 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Zhang, Xiaolei
Ma, Renjun
Wang, Lin
Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries
title Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries
title_full Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries
title_fullStr Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries
title_full_unstemmed Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries
title_short Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries
title_sort predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of covid-19 outbreaks in major western countries
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7167569/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32313405
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109829
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