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Salvage use of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in the setting of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19 in the USA: a Markov decision analysis
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 threatens to quickly overwhelm our existing critical care infrastructure in the USA. Systemic tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) has been previously demonstrated to improve PaO(2)/FiO(2) (mmHg) when given to critically ill patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7169373/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32312290 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13017-020-00305-4 |
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author | Choudhury, Rashikh Barrett, Christopher D. Moore, Hunter B. Moore, Ernest E. McIntyre, Robert C. Moore, Peter K. Talmor, Daniel S. Nydam, Trevor L. Yaffe, Michael B. |
author_facet | Choudhury, Rashikh Barrett, Christopher D. Moore, Hunter B. Moore, Ernest E. McIntyre, Robert C. Moore, Peter K. Talmor, Daniel S. Nydam, Trevor L. Yaffe, Michael B. |
author_sort | Choudhury, Rashikh |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: COVID-19 threatens to quickly overwhelm our existing critical care infrastructure in the USA. Systemic tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) has been previously demonstrated to improve PaO(2)/FiO(2) (mmHg) when given to critically ill patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). It is unclear to what extent tPA may impact population-based survival during the current US COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A decision analytic Markov state transition model was created to simulate the life critically ill COVID-19 patients as they transitioned to either recovery or death. Two patient groups were simulated (50,000 patients in each group); (1) Patients received tPA immediately upon diagnosis of ARDS and (2) patients received standard therapy for ARDS. Base case critically ill COVID-19 patients were defined as having a refractory PaO(2)/FiO(2) of < 60 mmHg (salvage use criteria). Transition from severe to moderate to mild ARDS, recovery, and death were estimated. Markov model parameters were extracted from existing ARDS/COVID-19 literature. RESULTS: The use of tPA was associated with reduced mortality (47.6% [tTPA] vs. 71.0% [no tPA]) for base case patients. When extrapolated to the projected COVID-19 eligible for salvage use tPA in the USA, peak mortality (deaths/100,000 patients) was reduced for both optimal social distancing (70.5 [tPA] vs. 75.0 [no tPA]) and no social distancing (158.7 [tPA] vs. 168.8 [no tPA]) scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Salvage use of tPA may improve recovery of ARDS patients, thereby reducing COVID-19-related mortality and ensuring sufficient resources to manage this pandemic. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7169373 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-71693732020-04-21 Salvage use of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in the setting of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19 in the USA: a Markov decision analysis Choudhury, Rashikh Barrett, Christopher D. Moore, Hunter B. Moore, Ernest E. McIntyre, Robert C. Moore, Peter K. Talmor, Daniel S. Nydam, Trevor L. Yaffe, Michael B. World J Emerg Surg Commentary BACKGROUND: COVID-19 threatens to quickly overwhelm our existing critical care infrastructure in the USA. Systemic tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) has been previously demonstrated to improve PaO(2)/FiO(2) (mmHg) when given to critically ill patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). It is unclear to what extent tPA may impact population-based survival during the current US COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A decision analytic Markov state transition model was created to simulate the life critically ill COVID-19 patients as they transitioned to either recovery or death. Two patient groups were simulated (50,000 patients in each group); (1) Patients received tPA immediately upon diagnosis of ARDS and (2) patients received standard therapy for ARDS. Base case critically ill COVID-19 patients were defined as having a refractory PaO(2)/FiO(2) of < 60 mmHg (salvage use criteria). Transition from severe to moderate to mild ARDS, recovery, and death were estimated. Markov model parameters were extracted from existing ARDS/COVID-19 literature. RESULTS: The use of tPA was associated with reduced mortality (47.6% [tTPA] vs. 71.0% [no tPA]) for base case patients. When extrapolated to the projected COVID-19 eligible for salvage use tPA in the USA, peak mortality (deaths/100,000 patients) was reduced for both optimal social distancing (70.5 [tPA] vs. 75.0 [no tPA]) and no social distancing (158.7 [tPA] vs. 168.8 [no tPA]) scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Salvage use of tPA may improve recovery of ARDS patients, thereby reducing COVID-19-related mortality and ensuring sufficient resources to manage this pandemic. BioMed Central 2020-04-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7169373/ /pubmed/32312290 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13017-020-00305-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Commentary Choudhury, Rashikh Barrett, Christopher D. Moore, Hunter B. Moore, Ernest E. McIntyre, Robert C. Moore, Peter K. Talmor, Daniel S. Nydam, Trevor L. Yaffe, Michael B. Salvage use of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in the setting of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19 in the USA: a Markov decision analysis |
title | Salvage use of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in the setting of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19 in the USA: a Markov decision analysis |
title_full | Salvage use of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in the setting of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19 in the USA: a Markov decision analysis |
title_fullStr | Salvage use of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in the setting of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19 in the USA: a Markov decision analysis |
title_full_unstemmed | Salvage use of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in the setting of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19 in the USA: a Markov decision analysis |
title_short | Salvage use of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in the setting of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19 in the USA: a Markov decision analysis |
title_sort | salvage use of tissue plasminogen activator (tpa) in the setting of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ards) due to covid-19 in the usa: a markov decision analysis |
topic | Commentary |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7169373/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32312290 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13017-020-00305-4 |
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