Conceptual framework and uncertainty analysis for large-scale, species-agnostic modelling of landscape connectivity across Alberta, Canada

Sustainable land-use planning should consider large-scale landscape connectivity. Commonly-used species-specific connectivity models are difficult to generalize for a wide range of taxa. In the context of multi-functional land-use planning, there is growing interest in species-agnostic approaches, modelling connectivity as a function of human landscape modification. We propose a conceptual framework, apply it to model connectivity as current density across Alberta, Canada, and assess map sensitivity to modelling decisions. We directly compared the uncertainty related to (1) the definition of the degree of human modification, (2) the decision whether water bodies are considered barriers to movement, and (3) the scaling function used to translate degree of human modification into resistance values. Connectivity maps were most sensitive to the consideration of water as barrier to movement, followed by the choice of scaling function, whereas maps were more robust to different conceptualizations of the degree of human modification. We observed higher concordance among cells with high (standardized) current density values than among cells with low values, which supports the identification of cells contributing to larger-scale connectivity based on a cut-off value. We conclude that every parameter in species-agnostic connectivity modelling requires attention, not only the definition of often-criticized expert-based degrees of human modification.