Development and validation of a 10‐gene prognostic signature for acute myeloid leukaemia

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is the most common type of adult acute leukaemia and has a poor prognosis. Thus, optimal risk stratification is of greatest importance for reasonable choice of treatment and prognostic evaluation. For our study, a total of 1707 samples of AML patients from three public databases were divided into meta‐training, meta‐testing and validation sets. The meta‐training set was used to build risk prediction model, and the other four data sets were employed for validation. By log‐rank test and univariate COX regression analysis as well as LASSO‐COX, AML patients were divided into high‐risk and low‐risk groups based on AML risk score (AMLRS) which was constituted by 10 survival‐related genes. In meta‐training, meta‐testing and validation sets, the patient in the low‐risk group all had a significantly longer OS (overall survival) than those in the high‐risk group (P < .001), and the area under ROC curve (AUC) by time‐dependent ROC was 0.5854‐0.7905 for 1 year, 0.6652‐0.8066 for 3 years and 0.6622‐0.8034 for 5 years. Multivariate COX regression analysis indicated that AMLRS was an independent prognostic factor in four data sets. Nomogram combining the AMLRS and two clinical parameters performed well in predicting 1‐year, 3‐year and 5‐year OS. Finally, we created a web‐based prognostic model to predict the prognosis of AML patients (https://tcgi.shinyapps.io/amlrs_nomogram/).