Correlation between initial tumour volume and treatment duration on Dabrafenib: observation study of subjects with BRAF mutant melanoma on the BRF112680 trial

BACKGROUND: Planar-based measurements of lesions in metastatic melanoma have limitations in estimating tumor burden of a patient and in predicting response to treatment. Volumetric imaging might add predictive value to Response criteria in Solid Tumor (RECIST)-measurement. Based on clinical observations, we explored the association between baseline tumor volume (TV) and duration of treatment with dabrafenib in patients with metastatic melanoma. We have also explored the prognostic value of TV for overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS). METHODS: This is a retrospective, chart-review of primary source documents and medical imaging of a cohort of patients participating in the BRF112680 phase 1 clinical trial at the Prince of Wales Hospital. TV was quantified by contouring all the measurable baseline target lesions in the standard manner for radiation planning using Voxxar™ software. We used Cox regression models to analyse associations between TV and duration of treatment with dabrafenib and between TV, PFS and OS. RESULTS: Among 13 patients of BRAF 112680 trial, 10 were included in the retrospective analysis. Target lesion sum volume ranged from 0.3 to 1065.5 cm(3) (cc), with a median of 27.5 cc. The median PFS and OS were 420 days (range 109–1765) and 1680 days (range 390–2940), respectively. The initial TV was inversely correlated with duration of treatment with dabrafenib (rho − 0.6; P 0.03). In multivariate analysis, TV was a predictor for OS (HR 2.81 CI 1.06–6.19) and PFS (8.76 (CI 1.05–43.58). Patients with tumour volume above the median had significantly lower OS of 6-months compared to 56-months survival for patients with smaller volumes; P = 0.019. CONCLUSIONS: TV is a predictor for treatment duration and is prognostic of OS and PFS in patients with metastatic melanoma. These findings need to be validated prospectively in clinical trials.