The influence of the age-period-cohort effects on the temporal trend mortality from schistosomiasis in Brazil from 1980 to 2014

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis is highly debilitating and related to poverty, leading to chronic health problems. This disease is important for public health due to the high prevalence, severity of clinical forms and heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns. In Brazil, about 1.5 million people are at risk of infection with Schistosoma mansoni, with an annual average of 500 deaths. In this study, the temporal change in mortality was evaluated in relation to the effects of age, period and birth cohort, in Brazil and regions, from 1980 to 2014. METHODS: In this study, we analyzed the influence of age, period and birth cohort (APC effects) on the temporal evolution of schistosomiasis mortality in Brazil from 1980 to 2014, according to sex and geographic regions of the country. The death records were extracted from the SIM (Mortality Information System) of the DATASUS website (Department of National Health Informatics) of the Ministry of Health of Brazil. The temporal effects were estimated using Bayesian models and the INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations) method for parameter inference. RESULTS: More than 24 thousand deaths were registered in the analyzed period, mainly in men from the Northeast region. In Brazil, children under 14 years of age had protection against death from schistosomiasis. There was no significant effect for others ages. From 1990 to 1999, there was a protective effect for death from schistosomiasis and a null effect in the other periods. There was a decreasing trend in the risk of death among birth cohorts. The greatest risk was among people born from 1903 to 1912. There was a protective effect for death among people born after 1968. Men were at risk of death between 25 and 54 years old, while women were at risk after seventy years of age. The southern and central-western regions had a risk of death until 1989 and had a protective effect between1995 and 1999. The northern region had a risk of death between 1985 and 1994, and a protective effect after 2005. The northeast and Southeast regions had protective effects for death between the years 1990 and 1999, and after 2000, respectively. People born until 1952 and 1957 were at risk of dying in the South and North regions, respectively, and a protective effect among people born after 1968, in both regions. In the Northeast region, there was a protective effect among people born after 1963. In the other regions, there was a risk of death among people born until 1962 and a protective effect among people born after 1973. The Central-West region had the least declining trend in risk of death among birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The birth cohorts had a great influence on the decreasing trend of schistosomiasis mortality in Brazil. This result may be due to the interaction between demographic changes and greater access to health and sanitation services, in addition to the impact of schistosomiasis control measures experienced by younger cohorts.