Prediction model based on blood urea nitrogen and the leukocyte count for intestinal necrosis in patients with portal vein system thrombosis: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Portal vein system thrombosis (PVST) is a serious and potentially fatal disease. No definite parameter can predict intestinal necrosis in patients with PVST to justify early surgical intervention. The current study aimed to explore a simple and accurate model to predict the occurrence of intestinal necrosis in patients with PVST. METHODS: Records of patients admitted to our emergency department with PVST from January 2010 to October 2018 were reviewed. Clinical parameters, including patient history, physical examination, and the results of laboratory investigations, were analyzed. RESULTS: Sixty-nine patients (27 females) were included. All patients were admitted to our emergency department because of abdominal pain. Fourteen patients required exploratory laparotomy, and intestinal necrosis was confirmed. Seven patients received thrombolytic therapy, and the other 48 patients had completed anticoagulation successfully. According to multivariate logistic regression, high blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR: 1.413, P=0.048) and the leukocyte count (OR: 1.180, P=0.005) were associated with intestinal necrosis, and a prediction model for intestinal necrosis (PMIN) based on the BUN and leukocyte count was established. CONCLUSIONS: The PMIN score could effectively predict intestinal necrosis in patients with PVST.