Nomogram-based prediction of survival in unresectable or metastatic gastric cancer patients with good performance status who received first-line chemotherapy

BACKGROUND: Good performance status (PS) is widely acknowledged to have a high prognostic ability, although the prognostic parameters of cancer patients with good PS are still uncertain. This study was conducted to establish and validate a point-based nomogram to assist with predicting prognosis in unresectable or metastatic gastric cancer (GC) patients who had good PS and underwent first-line chemotherapy. METHODS: At random, a total of 309 patients with GC were split into 2 cohorts: a training cohort (n=259) and an internal validation cohort (n=50). An independent external validation cohort comprising 147 patients was also recruited. Both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate patients based on the overall survival (OS) to develop the nomogram, which was subsequently validated using the concordance index (c-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The nomogram contained 3 independent prognostic variables in the training cohort: the number of distant metastatic sites (P<0.001), carbohydrate antigen 199 (CA199) level (P=0.002), and fibrinogen (P=0.020). The nomogram predicted an OS with a c-index of 0.623 (95% CI, 0.58–0.67) in the training cohort. The internal validation showed that the nomogram had a c-index of 0.614 (95% CI, 0.51–0.72). For external validation, the c-index was 0.638 (95% CI, 0.58–0.70). CONCLUSIONS: A reliable point-based nomogram for predicting the prognosis of patients who had unresectable or metastatic GC and good PS who underwent first-line chemotherapy was developed and validated. KEYWORDS: Nomogram-based prediction; overall survival; unresectable gastric cancer; metastatic gastric cancer; good performance status; first-line chemotherapy