Cargando…

Traffic accident mortality change and its relation to ambient temperature in a dry region of Iran; a study using generalized additive mixed models

BACKGROUND: Traffic accidents is one of the main causes of mortality, and has a high impact on overall health and development. Iran is a country with a high prevalence of traffic accidents, and this has been a big concern. In this study, we aimed to study the past decade’s trend in mortality due to...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Aboubakri, Omid, Khanjani, Narges, Jahani, Younes, Bakhtiari, Bahram
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7186996/
_version_ 1783527075301294080
author Aboubakri, Omid
Khanjani, Narges
Jahani, Younes
Bakhtiari, Bahram
author_facet Aboubakri, Omid
Khanjani, Narges
Jahani, Younes
Bakhtiari, Bahram
author_sort Aboubakri, Omid
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Traffic accidents is one of the main causes of mortality, and has a high impact on overall health and development. Iran is a country with a high prevalence of traffic accidents, and this has been a big concern. In this study, we aimed to study the past decade’s trend in mortality due to traffic accident in Kerman, Iran, and its relation with ambient temperature by using Generalized Additive Mixed Models. METHODS: Meteorological data, such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of Kerman and traffic mortality data were obtained from the Health Deputy of Kerman University of Medical Sciences. In order to explore the relations, Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) were used. Additive models are nonparametric forms of regression models in which the summation of regression coefficients × explanatory variables of a linear regression is replaced by a summation of arbitrary smooth functions of the explanatory variables. RESULTS: About 2900 deaths due to traffic accident occurred from March 2005 until May 2017 in Kerman. The monthly average deaths were 20.01(±14.43) that was more for men than women (15.42 vs 4.58), and was highest in the age 31-60 group. Non-linear effect of time on mortality was significant. There was a negative effect of time on mortality until 2009, while all other confounders were adjusted. After a short-term increasing trend till early 2011, and then a decreasing trend until 2013, an increasing trend was observed again. Holding pollutants, temperature and year (trend effect) stable, mortality tended to be higher for the first half of year, with an increasing slope in the first 3 months of the year. Monthly average temperatures below 13°C was related with increased mortality, but average temperatures around 20°C had no effect on mortality. High temperatures (>23°C) were associated with less mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Most traffic accident related deaths occurred in first half of year (spring and summer), and it is probably because of increased inter-city traveling during the summer break. Our results showed that high extreme temperatures have less contribution on the mortality. KEYWORDS: Accident, Mortality, Trend, Ambient Temperature
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7186996
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2019
publisher Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-71869962020-05-01 Traffic accident mortality change and its relation to ambient temperature in a dry region of Iran; a study using generalized additive mixed models Aboubakri, Omid Khanjani, Narges Jahani, Younes Bakhtiari, Bahram J Inj Violence Res Poster Presentation BACKGROUND: Traffic accidents is one of the main causes of mortality, and has a high impact on overall health and development. Iran is a country with a high prevalence of traffic accidents, and this has been a big concern. In this study, we aimed to study the past decade’s trend in mortality due to traffic accident in Kerman, Iran, and its relation with ambient temperature by using Generalized Additive Mixed Models. METHODS: Meteorological data, such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of Kerman and traffic mortality data were obtained from the Health Deputy of Kerman University of Medical Sciences. In order to explore the relations, Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) were used. Additive models are nonparametric forms of regression models in which the summation of regression coefficients × explanatory variables of a linear regression is replaced by a summation of arbitrary smooth functions of the explanatory variables. RESULTS: About 2900 deaths due to traffic accident occurred from March 2005 until May 2017 in Kerman. The monthly average deaths were 20.01(±14.43) that was more for men than women (15.42 vs 4.58), and was highest in the age 31-60 group. Non-linear effect of time on mortality was significant. There was a negative effect of time on mortality until 2009, while all other confounders were adjusted. After a short-term increasing trend till early 2011, and then a decreasing trend until 2013, an increasing trend was observed again. Holding pollutants, temperature and year (trend effect) stable, mortality tended to be higher for the first half of year, with an increasing slope in the first 3 months of the year. Monthly average temperatures below 13°C was related with increased mortality, but average temperatures around 20°C had no effect on mortality. High temperatures (>23°C) were associated with less mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Most traffic accident related deaths occurred in first half of year (spring and summer), and it is probably because of increased inter-city traveling during the summer break. Our results showed that high extreme temperatures have less contribution on the mortality. KEYWORDS: Accident, Mortality, Trend, Ambient Temperature Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences 2019-08 /pmc/articles/PMC7186996/ Text en Copyright © 2019, KUMS http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Poster Presentation
Aboubakri, Omid
Khanjani, Narges
Jahani, Younes
Bakhtiari, Bahram
Traffic accident mortality change and its relation to ambient temperature in a dry region of Iran; a study using generalized additive mixed models
title Traffic accident mortality change and its relation to ambient temperature in a dry region of Iran; a study using generalized additive mixed models
title_full Traffic accident mortality change and its relation to ambient temperature in a dry region of Iran; a study using generalized additive mixed models
title_fullStr Traffic accident mortality change and its relation to ambient temperature in a dry region of Iran; a study using generalized additive mixed models
title_full_unstemmed Traffic accident mortality change and its relation to ambient temperature in a dry region of Iran; a study using generalized additive mixed models
title_short Traffic accident mortality change and its relation to ambient temperature in a dry region of Iran; a study using generalized additive mixed models
title_sort traffic accident mortality change and its relation to ambient temperature in a dry region of iran; a study using generalized additive mixed models
topic Poster Presentation
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7186996/
work_keys_str_mv AT aboubakriomid trafficaccidentmortalitychangeanditsrelationtoambienttemperatureinadryregionofiranastudyusinggeneralizedadditivemixedmodels
AT khanjaninarges trafficaccidentmortalitychangeanditsrelationtoambienttemperatureinadryregionofiranastudyusinggeneralizedadditivemixedmodels
AT jahaniyounes trafficaccidentmortalitychangeanditsrelationtoambienttemperatureinadryregionofiranastudyusinggeneralizedadditivemixedmodels
AT bakhtiaribahram trafficaccidentmortalitychangeanditsrelationtoambienttemperatureinadryregionofiranastudyusinggeneralizedadditivemixedmodels