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Predicting the turning points of housing prices by combining the financial model with genetic algorithm

The turning points of housing prices play a significant role in the real estate market and economy. However, because multiple factors impact the market, the prediction of the turning points of housing prices faces significant challenges. To solve this problem, in this study, a historical data-based...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Dong, Shihai, Wang, Yandong, Gu, Yanyan, Shao, Shiwei, Liu, Hui, Wu, Shanmei, Li, Mengmeng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7190176/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32348349
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0232478
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author Dong, Shihai
Wang, Yandong
Gu, Yanyan
Shao, Shiwei
Liu, Hui
Wu, Shanmei
Li, Mengmeng
author_facet Dong, Shihai
Wang, Yandong
Gu, Yanyan
Shao, Shiwei
Liu, Hui
Wu, Shanmei
Li, Mengmeng
author_sort Dong, Shihai
collection PubMed
description The turning points of housing prices play a significant role in the real estate market and economy. However, because multiple factors impact the market, the prediction of the turning points of housing prices faces significant challenges. To solve this problem, in this study, a historical data-based model that incorporates a multi-population genetic algorithm with elitism into the log-periodic power law model is proposed. This model overcomes the weaknesses of multivariate and univariate methods that it does not require any external factors while achieving excellent interpretations. We applied the model to the case study collected from housing prices in Wuhan, China, from December 2016 to October 2018. To verify its reliability, we compared the results of the proposed model to those of the log-periodic power law model optimized by the standard genetic algorithm and simulated annealing, the results of which indicate that the proposed model performs best in terms of prediction. Efficiently predicting and analyzing the housing prices will help the government promulgate effective policies for regulating the real estate market and protect home buyers.
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spelling pubmed-71901762020-05-06 Predicting the turning points of housing prices by combining the financial model with genetic algorithm Dong, Shihai Wang, Yandong Gu, Yanyan Shao, Shiwei Liu, Hui Wu, Shanmei Li, Mengmeng PLoS One Research Article The turning points of housing prices play a significant role in the real estate market and economy. However, because multiple factors impact the market, the prediction of the turning points of housing prices faces significant challenges. To solve this problem, in this study, a historical data-based model that incorporates a multi-population genetic algorithm with elitism into the log-periodic power law model is proposed. This model overcomes the weaknesses of multivariate and univariate methods that it does not require any external factors while achieving excellent interpretations. We applied the model to the case study collected from housing prices in Wuhan, China, from December 2016 to October 2018. To verify its reliability, we compared the results of the proposed model to those of the log-periodic power law model optimized by the standard genetic algorithm and simulated annealing, the results of which indicate that the proposed model performs best in terms of prediction. Efficiently predicting and analyzing the housing prices will help the government promulgate effective policies for regulating the real estate market and protect home buyers. Public Library of Science 2020-04-29 /pmc/articles/PMC7190176/ /pubmed/32348349 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0232478 Text en © 2020 Dong et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Dong, Shihai
Wang, Yandong
Gu, Yanyan
Shao, Shiwei
Liu, Hui
Wu, Shanmei
Li, Mengmeng
Predicting the turning points of housing prices by combining the financial model with genetic algorithm
title Predicting the turning points of housing prices by combining the financial model with genetic algorithm
title_full Predicting the turning points of housing prices by combining the financial model with genetic algorithm
title_fullStr Predicting the turning points of housing prices by combining the financial model with genetic algorithm
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the turning points of housing prices by combining the financial model with genetic algorithm
title_short Predicting the turning points of housing prices by combining the financial model with genetic algorithm
title_sort predicting the turning points of housing prices by combining the financial model with genetic algorithm
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7190176/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32348349
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0232478
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