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Strong correlations between power-law growth of COVID-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies

In this work, we analyze the growth of the cumulative number of confirmed infected cases by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) until March 27, 2020, from countries of Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. Our results show that (i) power-law growth is observed in all countries; (ii) by using th...

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Autores principales: Manchein, Cesar, Brugnago, Eduardo L., da Silva, Rafael M., Mendes, Carlos F. O., Beims, Marcus W.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: AIP Publishing LLC 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7192349/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32357675
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0009454
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author Manchein, Cesar
Brugnago, Eduardo L.
da Silva, Rafael M.
Mendes, Carlos F. O.
Beims, Marcus W.
author_facet Manchein, Cesar
Brugnago, Eduardo L.
da Silva, Rafael M.
Mendes, Carlos F. O.
Beims, Marcus W.
author_sort Manchein, Cesar
collection PubMed
description In this work, we analyze the growth of the cumulative number of confirmed infected cases by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) until March 27, 2020, from countries of Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. Our results show that (i) power-law growth is observed in all countries; (ii) by using the distance correlation, the power-law curves between countries are statistically highly correlated, suggesting the universality of such curves around the world; and (iii) soft quarantine strategies are inefficient to flatten the growth curves. Furthermore, we present a model and strategies that allow the government to reach the flattening of the power-law curves. We found that besides the social distancing of individuals, of well known relevance, the strategy of identifying and isolating infected individuals in a large daily rate can help to flatten the power-laws. These are the essential strategies followed in the Republic of Korea. The high correlation between the power-law curves of different countries strongly indicates that the government containment measures can be applied with success around the whole world. These measures are scathing and to be applied as soon as possible.
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spelling pubmed-71923492020-04-30 Strong correlations between power-law growth of COVID-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies Manchein, Cesar Brugnago, Eduardo L. da Silva, Rafael M. Mendes, Carlos F. O. Beims, Marcus W. Chaos Fast Track In this work, we analyze the growth of the cumulative number of confirmed infected cases by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) until March 27, 2020, from countries of Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. Our results show that (i) power-law growth is observed in all countries; (ii) by using the distance correlation, the power-law curves between countries are statistically highly correlated, suggesting the universality of such curves around the world; and (iii) soft quarantine strategies are inefficient to flatten the growth curves. Furthermore, we present a model and strategies that allow the government to reach the flattening of the power-law curves. We found that besides the social distancing of individuals, of well known relevance, the strategy of identifying and isolating infected individuals in a large daily rate can help to flatten the power-laws. These are the essential strategies followed in the Republic of Korea. The high correlation between the power-law curves of different countries strongly indicates that the government containment measures can be applied with success around the whole world. These measures are scathing and to be applied as soon as possible. AIP Publishing LLC 2020-04 2020-04-28 /pmc/articles/PMC7192349/ /pubmed/32357675 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0009454 Text en © 2020 Author(s) 1054-1500/2020/30(4)/041102/9/$30.00 All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Fast Track
Manchein, Cesar
Brugnago, Eduardo L.
da Silva, Rafael M.
Mendes, Carlos F. O.
Beims, Marcus W.
Strong correlations between power-law growth of COVID-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies
title Strong correlations between power-law growth of COVID-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies
title_full Strong correlations between power-law growth of COVID-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies
title_fullStr Strong correlations between power-law growth of COVID-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies
title_full_unstemmed Strong correlations between power-law growth of COVID-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies
title_short Strong correlations between power-law growth of COVID-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies
title_sort strong correlations between power-law growth of covid-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies
topic Fast Track
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7192349/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32357675
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0009454
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