Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the bas...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Zhuang, Zian, Zhao, Shi, Lin, Qianying, Cao, Peihua, Lou, Yijun, Yang, Lin, Yang, Shu, He, Daihai, Xiao, Li
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2020
Materias:
Short Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7194543/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32334115
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044
Descripción
Sumario:The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R(0) as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.

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