Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the bas...

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Autores principales: Zhuang, Zian, Zhao, Shi, Lin, Qianying, Cao, Peihua, Lou, Yijun, Yang, Lin, Yang, Shu, He, Daihai, Xiao, Li
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2020
Materias:
Short Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7194543/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32334115
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044
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author Zhuang, Zian
Zhao, Shi
Lin, Qianying
Cao, Peihua
Lou, Yijun
Yang, Lin
Yang, Shu
He, Daihai
Xiao, Li
author_facet Zhuang, Zian
Zhao, Shi
Lin, Qianying
Cao, Peihua
Lou, Yijun
Yang, Lin
Yang, Shu
He, Daihai
Xiao, Li
author_sort Zhuang, Zian
collection PubMed
description The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R(0) as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.
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spelling pubmed-71945432020-05-02 Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020 Zhuang, Zian Zhao, Shi Lin, Qianying Cao, Peihua Lou, Yijun Yang, Lin Yang, Shu He, Daihai Xiao, Li Int J Infect Dis Short Communication The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R(0) as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively. The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2020-06 2020-04-22 /pmc/articles/PMC7194543/ /pubmed/32334115 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044 Text en © 2020 The Authors Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Short Communication
Zhuang, Zian
Zhao, Shi
Lin, Qianying
Cao, Peihua
Lou, Yijun
Yang, Lin
Yang, Shu
He, Daihai
Xiao, Li
Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020
title Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020
title_full Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020
title_fullStr Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020
title_full_unstemmed Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020
title_short Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020
title_sort preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (covid-19) outbreak in republic of korea and italy by 5 march 2020
topic Short Communication
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7194543/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32334115
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044
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