Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data

As of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. In this study, air travel data and the nu...

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Autores principales: Zhuang, Zian, Zhao, Shi, Lin, Qianying, Cao, Peihua, Lou, Yijun, Yang, Lin, He, Daihai
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7194910/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32171951
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.019
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author Zhuang, Zian
Zhao, Shi
Lin, Qianying
Cao, Peihua
Lou, Yijun
Yang, Lin
He, Daihai
author_facet Zhuang, Zian
Zhao, Shi
Lin, Qianying
Cao, Peihua
Lou, Yijun
Yang, Lin
He, Daihai
author_sort Zhuang, Zian
collection PubMed
description As of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. In this study, air travel data and the numbers of cases from Iran imported into other Middle Eastern countries were used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran. It was estimated that the total number of cases in Iran was 16 533 (95% confidence interval: 5925–35 538) by February 25, 2020, before the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.
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spelling pubmed-71949102020-05-02 Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data Zhuang, Zian Zhao, Shi Lin, Qianying Cao, Peihua Lou, Yijun Yang, Lin He, Daihai Int J Infect Dis Article As of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. In this study, air travel data and the numbers of cases from Iran imported into other Middle Eastern countries were used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran. It was estimated that the total number of cases in Iran was 16 533 (95% confidence interval: 5925–35 538) by February 25, 2020, before the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2020-05 2020-04-14 /pmc/articles/PMC7194910/ /pubmed/32171951 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.019 Text en © 2020 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Zhuang, Zian
Zhao, Shi
Lin, Qianying
Cao, Peihua
Lou, Yijun
Yang, Lin
He, Daihai
Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data
title Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data
title_full Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data
title_fullStr Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data
title_full_unstemmed Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data
title_short Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data
title_sort preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (covid-19) cases in iran: a modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7194910/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32171951
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.019
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