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Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change
Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk....
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7195482/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32358588 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4 |
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author | Iwamura, Takuya Guzman-Holst, Adriana Murray, Kris A. |
author_facet | Iwamura, Takuya Guzman-Holst, Adriana Murray, Kris A. |
author_sort | Iwamura, Takuya |
collection | PubMed |
description | Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950–2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2–4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector’s global invasion potential. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7195482 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-71954822020-05-05 Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change Iwamura, Takuya Guzman-Holst, Adriana Murray, Kris A. Nat Commun Article Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950–2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2–4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector’s global invasion potential. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-05-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7195482/ /pubmed/32358588 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Iwamura, Takuya Guzman-Holst, Adriana Murray, Kris A. Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change |
title | Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change |
title_full | Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change |
title_fullStr | Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change |
title_full_unstemmed | Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change |
title_short | Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change |
title_sort | accelerating invasion potential of disease vector aedes aegypti under climate change |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7195482/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32358588 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4 |
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