Factors governing outbreak dynamics in a forest intensively managed for mountain pine beetle

Mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks have caused major economic losses and ecological consequences in North American pine forests. Ecological and environmental factors impacting MPB life-history and stands susceptibility can help with the detection of MPB infested trees and thereby, improve control. Temperatures, water stress, host characteristics, and beetle pressure are among those ecological and environmental factors. They play different roles on MPB population dynamics at the various stages of an outbreak and these roles can be affected by intensive management. However, to make detailed connections between ecological and environmental variables and MPB outbreak phases, a deeper quantitative analysis on local scales is needed. Here, we used logistic regressions on a highly-detailed and georeferenced data set to determine the factors driving MPB infestations for the different phases of the current isolated MPB outbreak in Cypress Hills. While we showed that the roles of ecological and environmental factors in a forest intensively controlled for MPB are consistent with the literature for uncontrolled forests, we determined how these factors shifted through onset, peak, and collapse phases of the intensively controlled forest. MPB presence mostly depends on nearby beetle pressure, notably for the outbreak peak. However additional weather and host variables are necessary to achieve high predictive ability for MPB outbreak locations. Our results can help managers make appropriate decisions on where and how to focus their effort, depending on which phase the outbreak is in.