Predictive engines based on pharmacokinetics modelling for tacrolimus personalized dosage in paediatric renal transplant patients

The development of predictive engines based on pharmacokinetic-physiological mathematical models for personalised dosage recommendations is an immature field. Nevertheless, these models are extensively applied during the design of new drugs. This study presents new advances in this subject, through a stable population of patients who underwent kidney transplantation and were prescribed tacrolimus. We developed 2 new population pharmacokinetic models based on a compartmental approach, with one following the physiologically based pharmacokinetic approach and both including circadian modulation of absorption and clearance variables. One of the major findings was an improved predictive capability for both models thanks to the consideration of circadian rhythms, both in estimating the population and in Bayesian individual customisation. This outcome confirms a plausible mechanism suggested by other authors to explain circadian patterns of tacrolimus concentrations. We also discovered significant intrapatient variability in tacrolimus levels a week after the conversion from a fast-release (Prograf) to a sustained-release formulation (Advagraf) using adaptive optimisation techniques, despite high adherence and controlled conditions. We calculated the intrapatient variability through parametric intrapatient variations, which provides a method for quantifying the mechanisms involved. We present a first application for the analysis of bioavailability changes in formulation conversion. The 2 pharmacokinetic models have demonstrated their capability as predictive engines for personalised dosage recommendations, although the physiologically based pharmacokinetic model showed better predictive behaviour.