Development and validation of an early pregnancy risk score for the prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus in Chinese pregnant women

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a set of risk scores for the prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) before the 15th gestational week using an established population-based prospective cohort. METHODS: From October 2010 to August 2012, 19 331 eligible pregnant women were registered in the three-tiered antenatal care network in Tianjin, China, to receive their antenatal care and a two-step GDM screening. The whole dataset was randomly divided into a training dataset (for development of the risk score) and a test dataset (for validation of performance of the risk score). Logistic regression was performed to obtain coefficients of selected predictors for GDM in the training dataset. Calibration was estimated using Hosmer-Lemeshow test, while discrimination was checked using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the test dataset. RESULTS: In the training dataset (total=12 887, GDM=979 or 7.6%), two risk scores were developed, one only including predictors collected at the first antenatal care visit for early prediction of GDM, like maternal age, body mass index, height, family history of diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and alanine aminotransferase; and the other also including predictors collected during pregnancy, that is, at the time of GDM screening, like physical activity, sitting time at home, passive smoking, and weight gain, for maximum performance. In the test dataset (total=6444, GDM=506 or 7.9%), the calibrations of both risk scores were acceptable (both p for Hosmer-Lemeshow test >0.25). The AUCs of the first and second risk scores were 0.710 (95% CI: 0.680 to 0.741) and 0.712 (95% CI: 0.682 to 0.743), respectively (p for difference: 0.9273). CONCLUSION: Both developed risk scores had adequate performance for the prediction of GDM in Chinese pregnant women in Tianjin, China. Further validations are needed to evaluate their performance in other populations and using different methods to identify GDM cases.