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Population mobility induced phase separation in SIS epidemic and social dynamics

Understanding the impact of behavior dependent mobility in the spread of epidemics and social disorders is an outstanding problem in computational epidemiology. We present a modelling approach for the study of mobility that adapts dynamically according to individual state, epidemic/social-contagion...

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Autores principales: Harding, Nathan, Spinney, Richard E., Prokopenko, Mikhail
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7203161/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32376877
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64183-1
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author Harding, Nathan
Spinney, Richard E.
Prokopenko, Mikhail
author_facet Harding, Nathan
Spinney, Richard E.
Prokopenko, Mikhail
author_sort Harding, Nathan
collection PubMed
description Understanding the impact of behavior dependent mobility in the spread of epidemics and social disorders is an outstanding problem in computational epidemiology. We present a modelling approach for the study of mobility that adapts dynamically according to individual state, epidemic/social-contagion state and network topology in accordance with limited data and/or common behavioral models. We demonstrate that even for simple compartmental network processes, our approach leads to complex spatial patterns of infection in the endemic state dependent on individual behavior. Specifically, we characterize the resulting phenomena in terms of phase separation, highlighting phase transitions between distinct spatial states and determining the systems’ phase diagram. The existence of such phases implies that small changes in the populations’ perceptions could lead to drastic changes in the spatial extent and morphology of the epidemic/social phenomena.
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spelling pubmed-72031612020-05-12 Population mobility induced phase separation in SIS epidemic and social dynamics Harding, Nathan Spinney, Richard E. Prokopenko, Mikhail Sci Rep Article Understanding the impact of behavior dependent mobility in the spread of epidemics and social disorders is an outstanding problem in computational epidemiology. We present a modelling approach for the study of mobility that adapts dynamically according to individual state, epidemic/social-contagion state and network topology in accordance with limited data and/or common behavioral models. We demonstrate that even for simple compartmental network processes, our approach leads to complex spatial patterns of infection in the endemic state dependent on individual behavior. Specifically, we characterize the resulting phenomena in terms of phase separation, highlighting phase transitions between distinct spatial states and determining the systems’ phase diagram. The existence of such phases implies that small changes in the populations’ perceptions could lead to drastic changes in the spatial extent and morphology of the epidemic/social phenomena. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-05-06 /pmc/articles/PMC7203161/ /pubmed/32376877 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64183-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Harding, Nathan
Spinney, Richard E.
Prokopenko, Mikhail
Population mobility induced phase separation in SIS epidemic and social dynamics
title Population mobility induced phase separation in SIS epidemic and social dynamics
title_full Population mobility induced phase separation in SIS epidemic and social dynamics
title_fullStr Population mobility induced phase separation in SIS epidemic and social dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Population mobility induced phase separation in SIS epidemic and social dynamics
title_short Population mobility induced phase separation in SIS epidemic and social dynamics
title_sort population mobility induced phase separation in sis epidemic and social dynamics
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7203161/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32376877
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64183-1
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