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Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India
Exposure to high concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) is a leading risk factor for public health in India causing a large burden of disease. Business‐as‐usual economic and industrial growth in India is predicted to increase emissions, worsen air quality, and increase the assoc...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7203661/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32395679 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GH000139 |
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author | Conibear, Luke Butt, Edward W. Knote, Christoph Arnold, Stephen R. Spracklen, Dominick V. |
author_facet | Conibear, Luke Butt, Edward W. Knote, Christoph Arnold, Stephen R. Spracklen, Dominick V. |
author_sort | Conibear, Luke |
collection | PubMed |
description | Exposure to high concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) is a leading risk factor for public health in India causing a large burden of disease. Business‐as‐usual economic and industrial growth in India is predicted to increase emissions, worsen air quality, and increase the associated disease burden in future decades. Here we use a high‐resolution online‐coupled model to estimate the impacts of different air pollution control pathways on ambient PM(2.5) concentrations and human health in India. We find that with no change in emissions, the disease burden from exposure to ambient PM(2.5) in 2050 will increase by 75% relative to 2015, due to population aging and growth increasing the number of people susceptible to air pollution. We estimate that the International Energy Agencies New Policy Scenario (NPS) and Clean Air Scenario (CAS) in 2050 can reduce ambient PM(2.5) concentrations below 2015 levels by 9% and 68%, respectively, offsetting 61,000 and 610,000 premature mortalities a year, which is 9% and 91% of the projected increase in premature mortalities due to population growth and aging. Throughout India, the CAS stands out as the most effective scenario to reduce ambient PM(2.5) concentrations and the associated disease burden, reducing the 2050 mortality rate per 100,000 below 2015 control levels by 15%. However, even under such stringent emission control policies, population growth and aging results in premature mortality estimates from exposure to particulate air pollution to increase by 7% compared to 2015, highlighting the challenge facing efforts to improve public health in India. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7203661 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-72036612020-05-11 Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India Conibear, Luke Butt, Edward W. Knote, Christoph Arnold, Stephen R. Spracklen, Dominick V. Geohealth Research Articles Exposure to high concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) is a leading risk factor for public health in India causing a large burden of disease. Business‐as‐usual economic and industrial growth in India is predicted to increase emissions, worsen air quality, and increase the associated disease burden in future decades. Here we use a high‐resolution online‐coupled model to estimate the impacts of different air pollution control pathways on ambient PM(2.5) concentrations and human health in India. We find that with no change in emissions, the disease burden from exposure to ambient PM(2.5) in 2050 will increase by 75% relative to 2015, due to population aging and growth increasing the number of people susceptible to air pollution. We estimate that the International Energy Agencies New Policy Scenario (NPS) and Clean Air Scenario (CAS) in 2050 can reduce ambient PM(2.5) concentrations below 2015 levels by 9% and 68%, respectively, offsetting 61,000 and 610,000 premature mortalities a year, which is 9% and 91% of the projected increase in premature mortalities due to population growth and aging. Throughout India, the CAS stands out as the most effective scenario to reduce ambient PM(2.5) concentrations and the associated disease burden, reducing the 2050 mortality rate per 100,000 below 2015 control levels by 15%. However, even under such stringent emission control policies, population growth and aging results in premature mortality estimates from exposure to particulate air pollution to increase by 7% compared to 2015, highlighting the challenge facing efforts to improve public health in India. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2018-07-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7203661/ /pubmed/32395679 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GH000139 Text en ©2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Articles Conibear, Luke Butt, Edward W. Knote, Christoph Arnold, Stephen R. Spracklen, Dominick V. Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India |
title | Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India |
title_full | Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India |
title_fullStr | Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India |
title_full_unstemmed | Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India |
title_short | Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India |
title_sort | stringent emission control policies can provide large improvements in air quality and public health in india |
topic | Research Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7203661/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32395679 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GH000139 |
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