Subjective cognitive decline and subsequent dementia: a nationwide cohort study of 579,710 people aged 66 years in South Korea

BACKGROUND: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is a potential risk factor for dementia. We aimed to investigate the association between SCD and subsequent dementia in a nationwide population-based cohort in South Korea. METHODS: This cohort included 579,710 66-year-old adults who were followed for a total of 3,870,293 person-years (average 6.68 ± 1.33 years per person). All subjects completed a questionnaire about subjective memory impairment, the Pre-screening Korean Dementia Screening Questionnaire (KDSQ-P), which included a validated 5-item derivative, and were determined to have SCD based on a single question assessing memory decline. Depressive symptoms were assessed in all subjects using a 3-item modified geriatric depression scale. Hazard ratios were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model and compared between subjects with and without SCD. RESULTS: Compared to subjects without SCD, those with SCD were more likely to develop dementia (incidence per 1000 person-years: non-SCD, 5.66; SCD, 8.59). After adjusting for potential confounding factors, the risk of subsequent dementia significantly increased in subjects with SCD, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.38 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34 to 1.41). The risk of subsequent dementia was greatly increased in subjects with higher KDSQ-P scores (aHR = 2.77, 95% CI 2.35 to 3.27). A significant association between SCD and dementia was observed in both depressive and non-depressive symptom groups (aHR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.57 in subjects with depressive symptoms; aHR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.37 in subjects without depressive symptoms; P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this population of 66-year-old individuals, SCD was significantly associated with an increased risk of subsequent dementia. This association was found in both depressive and non-depressive groups, with an increased risk of dementia in the presence of depressive symptoms. Our findings suggest that SCD indicates a risk for dementia. Further studies are needed to delineate potential approaches to preventing the development of dementia in individuals with SCD.